BTC/USD remains under pressure as key $79,500 support faces another test

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Bitcoin faces uncertainty ahead of Fed decision

ETF flows reveal persistent investor caution

The latest data on U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs indicate a gradual weakening of institutional demand following strong inflows in the first half of last week. On October 22, the funds recorded net outflows of approximately $635.6 million, while investors withdrew another $137.9 million on October 23, with the bulk of redemptions coming from BlackRock's IBIT, which saw outflows of $110.3 million, and Fidelity's FBTC, which lost $31.8 million.

However, the situation improved somewhat on October 26: according to one real-time tracker, total net inflows reached approximately $110.3 million, entirely driven by IBIT. Thus, after two consecutive trading sessions of outflows, the market showed the first signs of renewed buying interest, although the scale of new demand remains significantly smaller than the previous redemptions.

Importantly, the cumulative ETF balance for October remains negative, despite inflows exceeding $1 billion between October 19 and 21. This indicates continued caution among institutional investors and makes it difficult for Bitcoin to establish a sustainable upward trend.

Fed decision and Treasury yields shape risk appetite

The macroeconomic environment also does not encourage aggressive cryptocurrency purchases. The main event of the week will be the Fed's interest rate decision on October 28, with market participants estimating the probability of the rate remaining unchanged at 3.75–4.00% at approximately 90%.

Despite some decline in U.S. Treasury yields from their October highs, 10-year U.S. Treasuries continue to yield around 4.99%, while 2-year yields remain near 4.70–4.71%. The persistently high cost of borrowing limits the attractiveness of speculative assets, particularly amid a stronger dollar and heightened uncertainty regarding the central bank's next steps.

Today's consumer confidence and durable goods orders releases, along with upcoming GDP and PCE data, could change investor expectations. For Bitcoin, the most favorable scenario would be an unchanged Fed rate accompanied by more dovish comments on future monetary policy, while renewed warnings about inflation could trigger another wave of selling.

Derivatives positions keep volatility risks elevated

Additional attention is focused on the cryptocurrency derivatives market. According to Bitfinex, Bitcoin's recent correction amounted to approximately 9.3%, making it the deepest since the July low, although it has not yet been accompanied by signs of widespread forced position reductions.

Total open interest remains relatively stable at around 669,000 BTC, indicating that a significant amount of speculative capital remains in the market even after the price decline. Meanwhile, some short-term market participants have taken profits following the previous recovery, while large holders have yet to show signs of mass capitulation.

In the absence of new market catalysts, BTC could continue to trade in a range between support around $79,500 and resistance at $80,600–81,000 in the short term. A break below support, as I warned in BTC/USD remains vulnerable below $81,000 ahead of Fed decision, would lead to a decline toward $78,500–78,000, while a break above $80,600 would allow another test of resistance around $81,000.

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