Plasma unlock event leaves 70% unmoved: Can XPL continue gains?

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Plasma jumps 6.64% as token unlock holds

Highlights

On September 25, 1.67 billion XPL were unlocked, with 833 million each for the team and investors.
About 70% of newly unlocked XPL tokens remain unmoved, limiting immediate selling pressure and near-term dilution.
XPL/USD shows moderate to strong bullish technical signals with price forecasted to trade in a $0.0714 to $0.0788 range over the next 1 to 3 days.

Supply overhang contained as most unlocked tokens remain unmoved

Recent market action is notably shaped by the major token unlock event on September 25, when 1.67 billion XPL were released, with team and investors each vesting 833 million XPL according to Dailycoin. Despite the large unlocked supply, 70% of these tokens remain unmoved, signaling limited immediate selling and easing near-term dilution fears. This dynamic stabilizes supply and supports buying interest as the market absorbs the change in liquidity, reinforcing the current upward momentum.

Buyer dominance persists as bullish momentum challenges overbought signals

On the H1 chart, XPL/USD trades above its MA-20 at $0.0742 and MA-50 at $0.0733, while remaining below the daily MA-200 at $0.0902. The Ichimoku Kijun at $0.0731 provides immediate support. Momentum indicators show strong buyer control, with MACD and ADX in bullish alignment. RSI stands at 65.01, indicating a buy signal, but both Stoch RSI and CCI are overbought and suggest caution as momentum may be stretched. Bull/Bear Power signals buyer dominance, while the Awesome Oscillator reads neutral and lends no further confirmation.

Consolidation likely as breakout odds favor upside within set range

Looking ahead over the next 1–3 days, price action is expected to consolidate between $0.0714 and $0.0788, a range defined by recent volatility. The probability of an upward breakout is high at 78%, with a move above $0.0788 indicating further gains toward resistance. Should price retreat below $0.0714, additional downside becomes more likely. The baseline scenario involves price remaining within this established band.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees robust sentiment in the Plasma (XPL) market. He notes that the September 25 token unlock created expectations of dilution, but actual selling pressure has remained low. Buyers are stepping in as supply stabilizes and momentum builds, with indicators confirming demand is in control for now. The tactical outlook is bullish while price holds above immediate supports. "The limited distribution of unlocked tokens provides a positive backdrop, so I expect XPL to challenge higher levels if the current momentum persists."

Earlier, analysts noted that Plasma’s outlook was constrained by persistent technical weakness and elevated downside risk. The current analysis signals a shift, as stabilizing supply dynamics and renewed upside momentum place the focus on whether the market can sustain gains above $0.0788 to confirm a potential trend reversal.

Source of Data: XPL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.