AVAX price prediction: Can 200-day SMA stop the selloff?

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Lower volumes leave room for an AVAX rebound

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Mykhailo Ihnatenko

29.10.2026

Avalanche remains under pressure as on-chain activity weakens and the broader crypto market stays fragile. The next test is whether $8.17 can hold and provide a base for a sharper recovery.

AVAX price prediction

24H 0.45%

$8.84

48H -0.57%

$8.75

7D -0.91%

$8.72

1M -18.07%

$7.21

3M -59.55%

$3.56

6M -68.18%

$2.8

12M -45.23%

$4.82

Detailed

Current price: $8.8 0.33 3.92%

Real-time Data 11:45

Daily range 8.52

9.06

Weekly range 8.00

9.16

According to Unchained, there was an attack on Tranche Vault on Avalanche, resulting in the withdrawal of about $1.01 million worth of USDC. This was achieved through manipulation of the vault’s share count using a flash loan. The hack occurred in a smart contract that is associated with Valinor Digital and Fence Finance and not the Avalanche blockchain itself.

On-chain activity, meanwhile, continues to soften. According to DeFiLlama, the total value locked in Avalanche is $551.7 million, while the stablecoin market cap decreased by 3.44% to $1.296 billion during the past week.

The seven-day DEX volume decreased by 32.73% to $483.3 million, while the perpetual futures volume was down by 2.34% to $164.8 million.

Holding $8.17 could support the next recovery attempt

The bearish setup outlined previously played out in full. AVAX reached the $8.90 target and extended the correction toward $8.56.

The nearest support sits at $8.17, where horizontal support converges with the 200-day SMA. Stabilization may begin around this area.

Notably, trading volume has been declining consistently during the current correction, pointing to limited strength behind the selloff. If signs of renewed demand begin to emerge, AVAX could recover the entire decline from the recent local high within several sessions.

A move above $9.17 would invalidate the bearish scenario. In that case, the next target would be the 50-day SMA near $9.75.

Lower selling volumes could support a sharp recovery

For now, the main source of pressure on AVAX is the broader weakness across the crypto market. With few strong independent catalysts, the token continues to follow the direction of larger digital assets.

At the same time, relatively light selling volume during the current decline leaves room for a sharp rebound. If crypto sentiment improves and demand starts returning, AVAX could produce a strong directional move higher.

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