Alice & Bob research points to lower qubit threshold for potential Bitcoin wallet attacks

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Quantum threat to Bitcoin wallets

Highlights

Alice & Bob researchers estimate a quantum computer with 29,588 physical qubits could break Bitcoin wallet cryptography in 62 minutes, sharply lower than prior projections.
The study reveals over 6 million bitcoins are vulnerable at addresses with exposed public keys, intensifying the need for quantum-resistant signature upgrades.
Researchers warn Bitcoin developers may have only until the early 2030s to implement fixes due to accelerating hardware improvements lowering attack requirements.

Quantum estimate sharpens long-term Bitcoin security debate

As first reported by CoinDesk, researchers at Alice & Bob estimate that a future quantum computer with about 29,588 physical qubits could break the cryptography protecting Bitcoin wallets in roughly 62 minutes. The study remains theoretical, but it lowers the hardware threshold from earlier assumptions and adds urgency to calls for quantum-resistant upgrades across the Bitcoin network.

Alice & Bob says its estimate is about 17 times lower than Google's March projection that fewer than 500,000 physical qubits could crack Bitcoin cryptography, although the two studies rely on different hardware designs and assumptions. The researchers argue this suggests the computing power needed to threaten Bitcoin may be smaller than previously expected, potentially bringing the risk closer to practical reality.

Exposed public keys emerge as main risk area

Bitcoin transactions would still be difficult to attack in real time under the model because the estimated 62-minute process is much longer than the network's average 10-minute block time. That means the scenario does not reliably allow an attacker to intercept ordinary transactions before they are confirmed.

The more immediate concern is for bitcoin held at addresses where public keys are already exposed, giving a sufficiently powerful quantum machine more time to work backwards and recover the private keys used to authorize spending. Researchers say more than 6 million bitcoins fall into that category, raising the stakes for developers weighing a migration to quantum-resistant signatures.

According to Goudarzi, who holds a PhD in cryptography, the findings are still theoretical, but hardware improvements and falling resource requirements may converge in the early 2030s. He says replacing vulnerable signatures across a decentralized network could take years, leaving Bitcoin developers with a narrow timetable even if machines capable of such attacks are still under development.

Our earlier article on Cohere’s planned acquisition of AI cybersecurity startup AISLE outlined how the deal would add AI-driven software vulnerability detection to Cohere’s broader buildout alongside its merger with Aleph Alpha. We noted that AISLE’s tools had already identified hundreds of previously unknown bugs, underscoring how fast-evolving technology is pushing organizations to strengthen security before new attack capabilities become practical.

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