Will ARB hold above $0.1471 support as weak momentum persists?

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Arbitrum drops 10.04% today to $0.155

Highlights

ArbitrumDAO is voting on allocating 100 million ARB from treasury as new incentives to promote USDG adoption.
Arbitrum registered 1.09 million active addresses on October 28, with CertiK engaging in a mentorship program to improve Web3 security.
ARB/USD trades below key moving averages with strong bearish momentum indicators, expecting a $0.1471 to $0.1601 range and high downside risk short term.

Incentive plan expansion weighs on supply amid network growth and new partnerships

ArbitrumDAO opened a vote on October 29, 2026, to allocate an additional 100 million ARB from its treasury toward incentives aimed at driving USDG adoption, according to Tokenpost. This proposed allocation introduces the prospect of increased token distribution into the market, which may trigger questions about future supply dynamics. Secondary data from Tokenpost showed Arbitrum’s active-address count reached a 30-day high at 1.09 million on October 28, while Cryptotimes reported CertiK’s participation in the Arbitrum and Robinhood Crypto Mentorship Program to advance security for emerging Web3 startups. These developments offered some positive network signals, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Seller dominance builds as price confronts multi-timeframe resistance

On the technical front, ARB/USD is trading below its MA-20 ($0.1662) and MA-50 ($0.1679) on the hourly chart, signaling short- and medium-term resistance. The price is still holding above its long-term MA-200 at $0.1219, while the Ichimoku Kijun level at $0.1645 marks a key immediate resistance. Momentum remains negative, with MACD and ADX confirming seller dominance, and the RSI reading of 33.1 underscores persistent weakness. Stochastic RSI and CCI are both in oversold territory, Bull/Bear Power reflects continued pressure from sellers, and the Awesome Oscillator supports a bearish momentum bias.

Limited rebound prospects as downside risks overshadow short-term range

In the short term, ARB is expected to trade within the $0.1471 to $0.1601 range over the next two to three days. The probability of a sustained upward move is low (less than 20%), and there is a markedly higher chance of further downside (more than 80%). The baseline outlook is for price consolidation within a narrow corridor; a move above $0.1645 would indicate breakout strength, while a break below $0.1471 would validate acceleration of the existing downside momentum.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees further downside risk for ARB as negative momentum dominates both technically and on sentiment. He notes that while network activity and new incentive initiatives signal fundamental engagement, large treasury outflows and persistent selling pressure weigh on the price outlook. ARB trades below major resistance levels and there are no signs yet of a reversal. "Until price breaks above $0.1645, I remain defensive and see any bounce as short-lived."

Previously it was reported that Avail launched ShieldTX a privacy service for Hyperliquid traders that uses zero-knowledge proofs to obscure wallet links and reduce the impact of copy-trading bots. Against the backdrop of significant downside pressure on Arbitrum, traders should be alert to further volatility around the $0.1471 support level, as additional token distributions and recent network activity could influence market dynamics in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: ARB Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.