Decline stalls below MA-200 resistance for ICP amid negative MACD signal: weekly forecast

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Internet Computer falls 9.59% this week

Highlights

Internet Computer trades at $2.49, down 9.59% over the past week and below all key daily moving averages.
Technical pressure persists, with weak price action despite a longer-term bullish moving average structure and negative weekly trend.
Price is projected to range between $2.28 and $2.71, with a high probability of further downside if $2.36 support fails.

Network activity surges this week as user gains outpace token demand

Internet Computer saw a 35% increase in median daily active addresses and a notable 45% rise in new addresses over recent periods, according to TronWeekly. The ICP network processed 201.1 million transactions in a single day, highlighting expanding user activity and engagement. While these trends suggest growing institutional and user involvement for ICP, TronWeekly cautions that higher network metrics may not necessarily result in increased demand for the token itself.

Oversold momentum signals rebound risk as downside pressure persists

The daily chart shows a developing trend, with momentum defined by a sharp move lower without a sustained trend and volatility at 16.53%. Stochastic RSI is firmly in the oversold zone at 0, suggesting possible selling exhaustion and upside rebound potential. At the same time, the MACD remains negative and signals continued downside risk. Support is marked at $2.36, while resistance aligns with the MA-200 at $2.56, with the Ichimoku Kijun at $3.05 acting as another resistance level. On the weekly chart the longer-term picture stays firmly negative.

Downside bias prevails next week unless key support at $2.36 breaks

Over the coming week, Internet Computer is expected to trade within a range of $2.28 to $2.71. There is a very high probability (more than 80%) of further downside and a very low probability (less than 20%) of a rebound. The base case calls for the price to fluctuate inside this range, with failed support at $2.36 paving the way for further declines. If price recovers above resistance at $2.56, a relief move toward $2.71 is possible. However, a decisive break below $2.36 would likely accelerate selling toward the lower end of the expected range.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, sees sentiment around Internet Computer remain weighed down after this week's nearly 10% slide. Technicals point to exhaustion, with the Stochastic RSI firmly in oversold territory at 0, suggesting traders may watch for a short-term rebound. However, the persistent negative MACD and the inability to overcome resistance at $2.56 keep downside risks in focus. On-chain data highlight a sharp uptick in user and network activity, but the disconnect from price action suggests traders remain unconvinced for now. "Unless support at $2.36 fails, I expect ICP to stay volatile between $2.28 and $2.71 with sharp moves likely if either boundary is tested."

Earlier, analysts noted that Internet Computer (ICP) remained under persistent selling pressure with a predominantly bearish technical outlook. The current analysis adds that heightened network activity has not reversed the negative trend, and traders should closely monitor the $2.36 support for signs of either further declines or a potential stabilization.

Source of Data: ICP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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