Avalanche range narrows amid weaker institutional DeFi flows: weekly outlook

Traders Union
All News
Crypto
Avalanche slides 7.15% this week

Highlights

Avalanche trades at $8.49, down 7.15% over seven days and positioned below key near-term moving averages.
Short-term momentum is negative with mixed signals, as MACD shows a sell bias and Stochastic RSI enters oversold territory.
Expected range for the next week is $8 to $8.97, with support at $8.24, resistance at $9.16, and a 78% probability of further decline.

Lending freeze and ETF stagnation weigh on sentiment as protocol activity shifts

Aave froze its Avalanche lending markets on October 29, 2026, to prevent a suspected Binance hacker from using over 1.8 million AVAX as collateral following a major outflow from Binance hot wallets, according to CryptoBriefing. In recent days, Avalanche-based platforms Lynq and ZeroBeta integrated tokenized US Treasuries for institutional collateral, while Ethena Pay launched Earn+, offering higher target yields and AVAX cashback, as reported by CryptoBriefing. Fund flows into Avalanche-related ETFs have shown no net inflows since early October, per 24/7 Wall St.

Sell momentum persists as MACD signals bias and stochastic RSI highlights exhaustion

On the daily chart, price action has shown a sharp move lower without a sustained trend, with volatility at 11.17%. Momentum signals are mixed but lean negative, as MACD points to a sell bias while Stochastic RSI is currently in the oversold zone, suggesting possible selling exhaustion and a risk of rebound. Nearest support sits at $8.24, while resistance is at $9.16 and the Ichimoku Kijun at $10.14 serves as an additional overhead barrier. On the weekly chart the longer-term picture stays firmly negative.

Downside favored next week unless $9.16 resistance breaks decisively

For the next 7 days, the expected range is $8 to $8.97. There is a 22% probability of an increase and a 78% probability of a decrease. Base case sees Avalanche contained between $8.24 support and $9.16 resistance. A sustained break above $9.16 would target $9.60 and beyond, while a drop below $8.24 exposes the $8 level and would reinforce downside momentum.

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, highlights that Avalanche (AVAX) dropped about 7% to near $8.50 this week amid muted institutional flows and heightened caution following Aave’s freeze on Avalanche lending markets due to a security scare. He notes that, while new integrations such as tokenized US Treasuries on Lynq and ZeroBeta and higher-yield DeFi products show some innovation, institutional inflows remain absent since early October, reflecting the overall lack of conviction. On the technical side, Dele observes that momentum remains negative, the daily MACD signals further downside risk, and price hovers near support at $8.24, with resistance at $9.16 likely capping any upside attempt. "Until AVAX convincingly reclaims $9.16, I see little basis for a bullish stance this week."

Earlier, analysts noted that Avalanche was experiencing persistent downside pressure and remained vulnerable to renewed selling in the absence of improving demand signals. The latest developments reinforce this cautious outlook, with institutional DeFi integrations and muted fund flows highlighting the need to monitor the $8.24 support as a key level for assessing further downside risk.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.