BTC slides more than 5% as bearish momentum and ETF volatility drive selloff

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Bitcoin drops 5.3% today to $77486

Highlights

Bitcoin price dropped 5.3% to $77,486 as spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $423.7 million in net inflows over three days.
Sustained ETF inflows reversed the previous month’s $254.7 million outflows, amid high US interest rates and inflation concerns.
BTC/USD faces technical pressure below short-term moving averages, with a projected five-day range of $75,455 to $79,516 and a 75% chance of a further decline.

ETF inflows and Fed policy shifts fuel investor positioning swings

Bitcoin experienced notable volatility following sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which totaled $57.6 billion. The price downturn coincided with the U.S. Federal Reserve maintaining elevated interest rates and growing inflation concerns. Over the last three days, spot Bitcoin ETFs registered $423.7 million in net inflows, while the prior month recorded $254.7 million in outflows, mirroring shifts in investor sentiment between caution and renewed institutional participation. Network data indicated a mild drop in weekday transactions and active addresses in October, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Bitcoin trading under pressure as macro headwinds and ETF outflows weigh heavily on sentiment. He notes the bearish technical structure, with BTC trapped below its 20- and 50-day moving averages and key momentum signals reinforcing negativity. The recent uptick in ETF inflows is not enough to offset broader risk aversion. Kharitonov stresses the significance of weak network activity and oversold conditions as clear warning signs. "I remain cautious — short-term rallies are likely to fail while $76,500 support is vulnerable to further downside pressure."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights the renewed institutional demand reflected in strong spot Bitcoin ETF inflows. He believes the long-term uptrend is secure with BTC above the 200-day moving average, despite current volatility. Karapetjanc views near-term consolidation as a healthy pause in a bigger bullish cycle. He points out ongoing network activity and investor re-engagement as early signs of recovery potential. "With further inflows and a positive macro shift, I expect Bitcoin to regain momentum above $77,910 in the coming sessions."

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, sees downside risk persisting as global macroeconomic uncertainty and tight Fed policy undermine crypto appetite. He warns that recent ETF inflows look fragile against a backdrop of declining transactions and soft market sentiment. Dele thinks market conviction is lacking while the price fails to reclaim the 20-day moving average. "Unless broader market confidence returns, I see limited support for Bitcoin above $76,500."

Bearish momentum persists as price remains under key moving averages

BTC/USD is trading below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages ($81,823 and $81,985), while holding above the 200-day moving average at $73,159. This configuration signals renewed short- and medium-term pressure from sellers, with longer-term trend support remaining intact. The near-term ceiling lies at $77,910 and the floor at $76,500. Momentum is weak, with the MACD and ADX both signaling a bearish or neutral setup. The RSI, CCI, and Stochastic RSI all indicate the pair is oversold or in a selling phase. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) is positive at 624.16, suggesting buyer presence in the intraday session, yet overbought readings point to rallies being short-lived. The session reflects continued pressure after the open, with momentum indicators confirming the prevailing bearish tone.

Earlier, analysts noted that while major setbacks such as large-scale exchange hacks can inflict significant short-term damage on the crypto sector, the overall market has shown resilience and adaptability. The current technical picture suggests traders should monitor the $76,500 support closely, as a decisive break below this level could accelerate downside momentum in the days ahead.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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