Will THORChain hold $0.4801 support amid weak momentum and fresh security concerns?

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THORChain slides 19.22% to $0.521 today

Highlights

THORChain halted cross-chain swaps on 10 blockchains after an Ethereum block reorganization exposed a refund flaw that enabled a double refund of 10 ETH.
The issue was resolved when the user returned the funds, but regulatory concerns increased and DeFi platforms faced calls to block transactions linked to the Binance hack.
RUNE/USD trades below key short- and medium-term averages with persistent bearish momentum, and is projected to range from $0.4801 to $0.5619 in the short term.

Security breach triggers swap suspension as regulatory pressure mounts

THORChain halted cross-chain swaps on 10 major blockchains after an Ethereum block reorganization on October 31 revealed a refund bug, which resulted in an erroneous double refund of 10 ETH, according to Cointelegraph. This security incident required urgent intervention but was resolved when the affected user returned the funds, restoring the platform's solvency. The event delayed laundering activity tied to the recent Binance hack and prompted heightened regulatory scrutiny and calls for DeFi platforms to block related transactions, while node operators suspended swaps across key networks, as reported by TradingView.

Bearish momentum intensifies with oversold readings and resistance overhead

RUNE/USD is positioned below the MA-20 at $0.5732 and MA-50 at $0.6256 on the hourly chart, but remains above the daily MA-200 at $0.4979. The Ichimoku Kijun on the daily timeframe stands at $0.5735, establishing immediate resistance. Momentum remains negative, with both MACD and ADX indicating a sell bias. RSI sits deeply oversold at 15.89, and both Stochastic RSI and CCI confirm oversold market conditions. Bull/Bear Power signals dominant selling momentum intraday, while the Awesome Oscillator continues to show a prevailing downtrend.

Downside risks persist amid volatile range and weak reversal prospects

RUNE/USD is expected to trade in a broad range between $0.4801 and $0.5619 over the next two to three sessions, reflecting current volatility. A potential bullish reversal is unlikely unless price reclaims the immediate resistance at $0.5735. If the asset loses support near $0.4801, further declines could occur, with the downtrend likely to persist unless renewed buying interest emerges to shift momentum.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, notes that recent protocol vulnerabilities and cross-chain swap suspensions have weighed on sentiment across the DeFi sector. He believes regulatory scrutiny and operational disruptions introduce short-term uncertainty but may ultimately drive improvements in THORChain’s risk management and resilience. Karapetjanc sees room for recovery if the network swiftly addresses security gaps and restores user trust. "If RUNE holds above $0.4801 while the protocol stabilizes, I expect sentiment and liquidity to gradually improve."

Previously it was reported that messages embedded in blockchain transactions encouraged laundering of assets stolen in the Binance hack using THORChain, as investigation into the incident continued. With THORChain now facing heightened scrutiny and operational disruptions following the recent refund bug, traders should monitor the platform's liquidity and any regulatory developments that could affect RUNE's short-term volatility and available trading ranges.

Source of Data: RUNE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.