RAY slides as sellers control momentum and downside risk remains high

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Raydium drops 7.8% to $1.66 today

Highlights

Raydium processed $1.09 billion in DEX trading volume and collected $3.10 million in fees during the week before November 7, 2026.
Protocol revenue reached $504,668, with $290,190 allocated for RAY token buybacks, supporting ongoing value accrual for holders.
RAY trades below short- and medium-term moving averages with bearish momentum, and is expected to consolidate between $1.5746 to $1.746 over the next 2 to 3 days.

Value accrual to holders observed amid high protocol activity

According to Blockchainmedia, DefiLlama data recorded roughly $1.09 billion in decentralized exchange trading volume on Raydium in the week leading up to November 7, 2026, highlighting notable transactional activity and protocol usage. Over this period, transaction fees totaled about $3.10 million, resulting in approximately $504,668 in protocol revenue, with $290,190 allocated to buyback mechanisms for RAY holders. The elevated fee and buyback figures reflect ongoing value accrual for token holders, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Downside risk persists as negative momentum meets overbought signals

RAY/USD is trading below the MA-20 at $1.72 and the MA-50 at $1.76 on the hourly chart, but remains above the longer-term MA-200 at $1.05. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $1.73 and marks immediate resistance. Momentum remains negative, with MACD on a strong sell signal and ADX indicating selling conditions. While RSI and CCI are neutral, the Stoch RSI is in the overbought zone, raising the potential for a downside correction. Sellers control intraday momentum, as indicated by a negative Bull/Bear Power value. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral, and there is a divergence between the neutral oscillator readings and the prevailing downtrend and overbought Stoch RSI signal.

Low upside probability as consolidation favors further losses

For the next 2–3 trading days, RAY/USD is expected to consolidate within a price range of $1.57 to $1.74, reflecting a moderate volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a sustained upward move is very low, while further downside risk remains high. A bullish scenario would require a break above immediate resistance at $1.73, while a close below $1.57 could open risk for additional losses.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees robust decentralized exchange activity and healthy protocol revenue as positive underlying signals for Raydium (RAY). He notes that transactional demand and buyback allocation support long-term fundamentals, even as short-term technicals remain negative. Karapetjanc believes immediate price momentum is pressured, but constructive fundamentals can provide a stabilizing backdrop. He expects consolidation and views downside risks as elevated unless key resistance is reclaimed. "If Raydium maintains strong DEX volumes and buyback activity, I remain optimistic about a potential recovery despite current chart pressures."

Earlier, analysts noted that Raydium was experiencing persistent bearish momentum amid limited market participation. The latest trading data reinforces this caution, and with downside risk remaining elevated, traders should closely monitor the $1.57 support level for potential shifts in price direction.

Source of Data: RAY Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.