Fed rate hike outlook puts pressure on Solana amid growing risk aversion

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Solana declines as Fed rate hike signals shift market risk appetite

Highlights

Solana came under strong selling pressure as markets priced in a probable US Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December 2026.
Shifts toward tighter US monetary policy reduced demand for risk assets and drained liquidity from crypto markets.
SOL continues to trade below key moving averages with sustained bearish momentum and has not broken the H4 Kijun resistance at $83.

Fed rate hike expectations and the risk asset selloff

According to Coinjournal, on November 11, 2026, Solana faced notable selling pressure after the market responded to a sharp increase in expectations that the US Federal Reserve would implement an interest rate hike in December 2026.

Tighter anticipated US monetary policy channels demand away from risk assets like SOL as investors increase preference for safer holdings, diminishing available liquidity within crypto markets. This environment typically suppresses sentiment for assets reliant on risk tolerance and speculative flows.

With the Fed’s policy outlook now a major focus, further volatility cannot be ruled out, especially as upcoming economic indicators and central bank comments may adjust market expectations. No offsetting Solana-specific developments have been reported to moderate the macro-driven selling pressure.

Bearish macro setup reflected in 4H trend signals

On the 4H chart, SOL remains below its 50-period and 200-period simple moving averages, reflecting continued technical weakness. The most recent H4 Kijun resistance at $83 has not been broken, and trend-following indicators show ongoing downside momentum.

MACD and ADX both currently provide sell signals, indicating that negative momentum remains dominant. Shorter-term moving averages are also aligned negatively, pointing to sustained bearish pressure as long as macro risks persist.

Fed policy signals and the $83 resistance as next technical test

External US monetary policy risks remain the dominant factor for price direction unless sentiment stabilizes. A move above the H4 Kijun resistance at $83 would be the first technical sign of relief. Otherwise, SOL stays vulnerable to fresh macro shocks tied to Fed guidance and liquidity shifts.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees macroeconomic risks dominating Solana’s short-term outlook. He believes US monetary policy expectations are the key factor guiding sentiment, pulling liquidity away from SOL and risk assets. Technical indicators show persistent bearish momentum, but Karapetjanc maintains a constructive stance should market conditions improve. The macro environment could drive further volatility, yet a breakout above the $83 H4 Kijun resistance would signal relief. "While US policy signals keep risk assets under pressure, I remain optimistic that Solana will see renewed strength if sentiment turns and technical resistance is broken."

Earlier, analysts noted that Solana was under sustained selling pressure with a predominantly bearish technical outlook. The current article reinforces this assessment, highlighting that macroeconomic developments—specifically tightening US monetary policy and Federal Reserve guidance—remain the primary factors to watch for Solana's next moves.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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