XRP price drops 6.45%, after altcoin selloff overshadows bullish ETF price prediction

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XRP Slides 6.45% Today on Volatility

Highlights

XRP trades at $2.8092, below the MA-20 ($2.9715) and MA-50 ($3.0042) but above long-term MA-200 ($2.5303), indicating short-term downside pressure with longer-term support.
Anticipation around potential spot XRP ETFs, such as BlackRock’s XRP Trust, and institutional moves like ProShares Ultra XRP ETF launch are fueling increased attention and adoption.
XRP's probability of an upward move next five days exceeds 80%, supported by weekly bullish RSI, MACD, and MA-50 against a single bearish ADX signal.

ETF anticipation and regulatory delays drive heightened institutional focus

Anticipation around the potential approval of spot XRP ETFs such as BlackRock’s XRP Trust is providing a focal point for institutional adoption, drawing significant attention from traders and investors. Regulatory decisions remain delayed, while recent launches like the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF and Ripple's US bank application underscore increased institutional interest and technological development in the XRP ecosystem. Market sentiment is also shaped by volatility stemming from a recent $600 million altcoin selloff, with ongoing developments in payment standards and new platform integrations supporting long-term growth.

Bullish momentum and bearish signals diverge amid volatile trading

Momentum signals are mixed on the daily timeframe, with the MACD suggesting strong bullish potential but the ADX reflecting a weak and neutral trend. Oscillators indicate oversold conditions (Stochastic RSI at 11.96, CCI near neutral), while daily RSI hovers near 50, suggesting a lack of immediate reversal strength. Bear Power remains with sellers according to BBP, and the Awesome Oscillator aligns with the current downward trend. The current price has dropped $0.1936, or 6.45%, since the previous session, opening at $2.9701 — a clear gap to the downside. Price is now trading close to today’s low within its intraday range ($2.8338 — $2.9753), showing high volatility and persistent selling pressure after the open. There is clear divergence among the oscillators and momentum signals, as strong bullish MACD contrasts with other bearish or neutral indicators. Intraday performance echoes this weakness, reinforcing the immediate bearish tone.

Bullish outlook dominates as high probability supports consolidation

For the next five trading days, the expected range for XRP is $2.8479 to $2.8711. The probability of an upward move is very high (more than 80%), given three clear weekly bullish signals (RSI, MACD, MA-50) against a single bearish (ADX). A decline in price is therefore much less likely during this period. The baseline scenario calls for XRP to consolidate within a sideways corridor near current levels. In the bullish scenario, a successful move above $2.9417 could trigger a push toward resistance and potentially retest recent highs. In the bearish case, failure to hold above long-term support at $2.5303 could open a new leg down, but this is not the favored outlook based on current higher time frame strength.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that XRP’s current technical setup remains vulnerable, with prices held back by short- and medium-term moving averages and persistent bearish momentum despite institutional interest and ETF speculation. He sees the market weighed down by ongoing volatility and mixed momentum signals, with the strong MACD divergence yet lacking broad confirmation from other indicators. Kharitonov believes further price consolidation is the base case, and remains cautious given the lack of clear bullish triggers amid prevailing downside risks. "Until XRP reclaims $2.9417 with conviction, I view any upside as limited and prefer to wait for stronger confirmation before considering longs."

Previously it was noted that rising open interest concentrated in short positions was adding a bearish undertone to sentiment. Additionally, analysts cautioned that bearish pressures from large holders and short-position accumulation are warning signals — the risk is that if macro or regulatory news turns negative, XRP could test lower supports.

Source of Data: XRP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.