Token unlock — Sei slips 26% as sellers dominate ahead of major October event

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Sei slides 26.34% today amid volatility

Highlights

SEI trades at $0.2047, below MA-20 ($0.2899), MA-50 ($0.3005), and MA-200 ($0.2565), reflecting strong short- and medium-term selling pressure.
On October 10, 2025, 64 million SEI tokens (1.04% of supply) will unlock for early backers and ecosystem funds, potentially impacting short-term price dynamics.
Momentum signals remain bearish after a 26.34% price drop, with SEI expected to trade between $0.2761 and $0.3088 over the next five days and low (<20%) odds of a price increase.

Token unlock event drives volatility amid institutional inflows

A major market event on October 10, 2025, is the scheduled unlocking of 64 million SEI tokens, representing about 1.04% of the circulating supply, mainly allocated to early backers and ecosystem funds. This token release could significantly impact short-term price dynamics and is closely watched by investors. Additional background includes increasing institutional adoption, with new tokenized funds from KAIO and growing settlement activity from Securitize, as well as ecosystem upgrades and enhanced liquidity from integration with major platforms.

Broad weakness as sellers overwhelm amid negative momentum signals

Momentum signals are cautious to negative on the daily time frame. The MACD shows strong selling pressure, but the ADX points to an active market with a potential for buying forces. Despite a daily RSI reading near neutral, Stoch RSI and CCI reflect emerging oversold conditions. The BBP suggests a neutral to slightly bearish intraday momentum, while the Awesome Oscillator supports the intraday downtrend. The price fell sharply by 26.34% with a minor gap at the open and is now near today's low in a volatile session. Sellers have dominated since the open and the overall tone is heavily pressured, as momentum and daily action both confirm pronounced weakness.

Sideways bias persists as probability of rebound remains low

For the next five trading days, SEI is expected to trade between $0.2761 and $0.3088. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), making further declines more likely in the short term. The baseline scenario is continued sideways movement within the projected range. A bullish scenario would require a breakout above $0.3078, while a bearish scenario could unfold if the price drops below $0.1277, the current session low which acts as intraday support.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees pronounced technical weakness in SEI as it trades well below key moving averages and momentum indicators paint a skeptical short-term picture. While institutional interest and ecosystem developments persist, he remains cautious given the looming token unlock and persistent selling pressure. Kharitonov stresses that the probability of a significant rebound is low under present conditions. "Until we see SEI reclaim key resistances like $0.3078, I remain on the sidelines and consider any upside to be premature."

Previously it was noted that a breakout above the Ichimoku Kijun ($0.3115) and MA-50 would be required for upside movement. The article also highlighted that momentum indicators remained negative, with weak trend strength and moderate downward momentum present.

Source of Data: SEI Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.