Bitcoin price prediction: BTC recovery capped near $116k as Washington calms market

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Bitcoin price prediction

Highlights

Bitcoin rebound above $115,000 stalls as hourly volume shows fading buyer participation.

Rare-earth trade tensions triggered sharp selloff, erasing Bitcoin entire gains in October.

Technical indicators show death cross formation, suggesting rebound remains corrective, not trend-changing.

Friday’s collapse was triggered by macroeconomic shocks rather than internal crypto market issues. Beijing’s announcement of new export curbs on rare-earth materials sparked immediate volatility, followed by Washington’s response after market hours, revealing plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese tech imports. These tit-for-tat trade measures shook global markets, wiping out billions of dollars in leveraged positions across both crypto and equities. The macro-induced selloff erased all of Bitcoin’s October gains, which had earlier driven the asset to a record high of $126,000.

Bitcoin price dynamic ( July - Oct 2025). Source: Tradingview

The sharp drop in open positions last Friday set off a chain of technical adjustments that now weigh on Bitcoin’s short-term momentum. On the 4-hour chart, the 20 EMA crossed below the 50 and 100 EMA shortly after the liquidation event, forming a death cross pattern that signals persistent bearish bias. The structure deepened today as the 50 EMA also moved below the 100 EMA. These consecutive crossovers show that the rebound faces layered resistance on intraday charts.

BTC traders eye $113,500 support zone for potential dip buying opportunity

Currently, the 20 EMA on the 4-hour chart is acting as resistance, preventing Bitcoin from breaking above $116,000. A confirmed candle close above this level would suggest renewed bullish strength and open a potential path toward the $120,000 psychological zone. Until that occurs, traders may treat the rebound as corrective rather than a trend reversal.

Support for the near term sits around $113,500, an area reinforced by the 100-day EMA and the upper boundary of a daily bullish order block that formed following the rebound. If prices revisit this level, it could attract another round of dip buying. However, unless trading volume expands and risk sentiment improves, the probability of a deeper consolidation phase remains higher than that of a full recovery.

Last week, we discussed Bitcoin options expiry worth $4.7 billion potentially driving volatility toward $118,000. Low trading volume capped short-term recovery attempts as an EMA death cross confirms a bearish tone.

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