Bitcoin price prediction: BTC faces renewed pressure near $120k ahead of options expiry

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Sholanke Dele

10.10.2025

Bitcoin price prediction: BTC faces renewed pressure near $120k ahead of options expiry — Weak volume limits bitcoin rebound

Bitcoin is trading near $121,000 on Friday, marking an ongoing daily loss of around 0.6% during the European session.

The slight rebound from Thursday’s dip has failed to gain traction as weak trading volume limits buying pressure. Price action shows that dip buyers stepped in late Thursday near $120,000, helping Bitcoin recover modestly to close at $121,700, yet the broader tone remains corrective. This follows a near 4% decline from Monday’s all-time high at $126,080, keeping the short-term bias within a bearish channel that has shaped the week’s decline.

- Bitcoin trades near $121,000 as low trading volume caps short-term recovery attempts.

- EMA death cross confirms bearish tone while options expiry adds short-term volatility risk.

- Long-term holders stay inactive as macro headwinds prevent renewed upside momentum this week.

The six-day low at $120,000 has become a focal support level, as traders weigh whether the current weakness could extend below it before the weekend. The hourly chart structure reinforces a bearish setup. A death cross has formed where the 20 and 50 EMA have moved below the 100 EMA, protecting the $122,000 resistance. This crossover pattern typically indicates that downward momentum is being defended by short sellers. So far, the lack of strong volume on rebounds reflects limited conviction from buyers.

Bitcoin price dynamic ( Sept - Oct 2025). Source: Tradingview

On the fundamental side, short-term holders have continued to take profits while some leveraged longs faced liquidation pressures. Long-term supply, however, has remained steady, suggesting that holders are largely inactive and treating the decline as a temporary correction rather than a change in the long-term trend. Spot exchange-traded fund flows have stayed positive, and exchange balances are near a six-year low, both pointing to continued investor preference for off-exchange holdings.

Options expiry worth $4.7B could drive volatility toward $118k

Yet, macro conditions have prevented fresh upside momentum. The dollar’s strength and persistent Treasury yields have tightened liquidity across risk assets. Traders are also awaiting clarity from the Federal Reserve on the next policy decision, a factor that has kept institutional activity subdued. These macro headwinds have offset the positive on-chain picture and kept Bitcoin in consolidation around the $121,000 zone.

An additional influence today is the expiration of Bitcoin options worth $4.7 billion in notional value. The max pain point, where most contracts lose value, stands at $118,000—forming a critical support zone. Open interest of 38,870 contracts shows a divided market between $110,000 puts and $120,000 calls, illustrating the ongoing balance of power between bullish and bearish traders. The combination of technical weakness, macro restraint, and expiring contracts increases the likelihood of another test below $120,000 before a clearer direction emerges next week.

We discussed Bitcoin retracing toward $120,000 as dip buyers prepared to enter near key support. Open interest had fallen to $42 billion, showing reduced speculative leverage across the market.

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