Kaspa: Persistent downside and strong trend led to double-digit price drop

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Kaspa drops 10.34% to $0.0519 today

Highlights

Kaspa (KAS) trades at $0.0519, 10.34% lower today and below key moving averages, reflecting persistent seller pressure and pronounced intraday volatility.
Kaspa plans to launch smart contracts in August 2025, shifting to a full platform for DeFi, NFTs, tokenized assets, and blockchain gaming.
Market indicators show sustained bearish momentum and oversold RSI/CCI, with a very low probability (under 20%) of price recovery above $0.0546 in the coming week.

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Kaspa will introduce smart contracts in August 2025, transforming its blockchain from a payments network to a full smart contract platform and expanding its ecosystem to support DeFi, NFTs, tokenized assets, and blockchain gaming. The asset's monthly decreasing rewards continue to foster scarcity and appeal to long-term holders. Growth in wallet activity and retail engagement further highlights increasing user interest in future platform upgrades.

Divergent momentum signals as sellers maintain intraday control

Momentum indicators show that the MACD remains negative, suggesting bearish momentum, while the ADX on the daily timeframe signals strong trend intensity. RSI and CCI readings are both in oversold territory, pointing to possible exhaustion among sellers. BBP indicates that sellers control intraday momentum, and the Oscillator is neutral, not reinforcing the trend. The price is sharply lower today, falling $0.006 or 10.34% with a small gap at the open, and currently sits near the day’s lower boundary of $0.0478, reflecting high intraday volatility and sustained pressure after the open. There is some divergence among oscillators and momentum indicators, particularly as ADX suggests strong trend while some oscillators hint at potential short-term relief, but the intraday sell-off is consistent with prevailing bearish momentum.

Downside risk prevails as narrow range and resistance cap upside

Looking ahead, the expected range for the next five trading days is $0.0480 to $0.0508. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), making a move to the downside more likely. The baseline scenario is for price action to remain within a narrow sideways corridor. A bullish scenario would require breaking above resistance near $0.0546, signaling renewed buyer interest, while the bearish scenario assumes a drop below $0.0478, which could deepen the retracement towards lower weekly support.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, believes that Kaspa's persistent weakness below all major moving averages, coupled with negative momentum readings and high intraday volatility, underscores sustained bearish pressure in the short term. Despite fundamental developments such as upcoming smart contract integration and growing user activity, the technical outlook remains cautious due to the prevailing downtrend and lack of reversal signals. Kharitonov maintains a defensive stance, noting that the risk of further declines outweighs any near-term recovery scenarios. "As long as Kaspa trades below key resistance at $0.0546, I remain on the sidelines and see no compelling reason to initiate long positions."

Last time, we reported that momentum indicators are mixed, as the ADX highlights trend strength while the MACD points toward ongoing bearish momentum. Previously, it was noted that intraday tone is decidedly weak with continued pressure according to technical signals.

Source of Data: KAS Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.