Bitcoin price prediction: BTC put/call ratio mixed as open interest hits $50B record high

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Sholanke Dele

24.10.2025

Bitcoin price prediction: BTC put/call ratio mixed as open interest hits $50B record high — BTC open interest surges to record $50B

Bitcoin traded near $111,540 on Friday, staying inside the familiar range between $107,000 and $114,000 that has shaped its movement throughout the week. The alpha coin price gained 1.4% in Friday’s European session, extending the week-to-date advance to 2.6%. However, the recovery lacks strong volume participation, showing that traders are waiting for confirmation before committing to new positions.

- Bitcoin trades between $107,000 and $114,000 as options expiry keeps traders cautious.

- Open interest hits $50B, showing equal strength between bullish and bearish positioning.

- $5.1B Bitcoin options expire today, setting the tone for next week’s trend.

The week began on a positive note near $107,000 but price action repeatedly stalled at $114,000, where the 20-day EMA has acted as a technical ceiling. Each rebound attempt toward that level has faded quickly, creating a clear band of resistance that separates short-term optimism from profit-taking pressure. A break above $114,000 could shift the short-term structure higher, but repeated rejections continue to reinforce consolidation bias.

Bitcoin price dynamic (Sept - Oct 2025). Source: Tradingview

At the derivatives front, activity on the crypto options exchange Deribit has reached record levels. Total open interest climbed to an all-time high of $50 billion, reflecting aggressive positioning by both bulls and bears. Deribit, which accounts for around 80% of global crypto options open interest, reported a sharp increase in contracts at key strike levels that reveal the market’s sentiment split.

Bitcoin open interest clustering above $120,000 hints at longer-term bullish bias

Open interest around the $100,000 strike stands at roughly $2.17 billion, showing that some traders are betting on a correction toward that level. However, there is significantly larger positioning at higher strikes, more than $2 billion each around $120,000, $130,000, and $140,000. Concentration at these upper strikes reflects that traders expect or are hedging for a major upward continuation, which suggests stronger medium-term bullish sentiment despite the current sideways price action.

Roughly $5.1 billion worth of Bitcoin options are expiring today on Deribit, carrying a put/call ratio of 1.03. This ratio indicates that both long and short contract holders are almost evenly matched, reflecting a balanced market. The max pain point where most contracts would lose value sits at $114,000, aligning precisely with Bitcoin’s upper resistance zone.

This alignment between derivatives data and spot price behaviour highlights indecision in the short term. Traders are hedging downside exposure but not positioning for a significant selloff. Unless Bitcoin breaks out of the $107,000 to $114,000 band decisively, the market could remain range-bound as liquidity and conviction stay concentrated around the options expiry levels.

We recently discussed Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index dropping to 28, reflecting deep market pessimism during the rebound. ETF outflows of $101 million showed institutions were yet to support the upward move.

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