XRP price prediction: High stakes support test looms as outflows hit $218M ahead of ETF wave

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XRP price slips toward $1.96

Highlights

- XRP slides to $1.96 as it reaches the lower edge of its nine-month triangle.

- Four-day spot outflows hit $218M, signaling the deepest liquidity drain since summer.

- Bitwise’s new XRP spot ETF debuts on NYSE, adding a major catalyst during a high-volatility period.

The latest rejection from the descending trendline has kept XRP locked inside a tightening compression pattern. Each bounce has been weaker than the last, and the market’s inability to regain even short-term moving averages reflects the shift in control. Traders are now watching whether the long-standing support near $1.90 can absorb pressure for a fifth time this year.

ETF debut arrives during a fragile moment for XRP

The launch of the Bitwise XRP spot ETF on the NYSE marks a major moment in XRP’s 13-year history. The fund offers U.S. investors regulated, direct exposure to XRP without needing to hold the token themselves. Bitwise is waiving its 0.34 percent management fee for the first month on up to $500 million in AUM, a move designed to encourage early inflows.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse welcomed the launch, calling it the start of the “pre-Thanksgiving rush” for XRP ETFs. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan emphasized XRP’s long operational track record and clarified regulatory status following last year’s partial settlement with the SEC. Historically, spot ETF launches for major crypto assets have produced short bursts of volatility before stabilizing as AUM flows find equilibrium.

Spot outflows accelerate as liquidity drains from XRP

Flows remain a key part of the story. XRP has recorded four straight sessions of net outflows, removing $218 million from spot venues. The most recent print showed $27.25 million in red flow as price moved below $2.00.

This marks one of the heaviest withdrawal streaks since late summer. Historically, XRP has only stabilized once outflows flatten, and recent readings suggest dip-buyers remain sidelined. Large spot participants are not stepping in to absorb pressure, allowing sellers to control direction and preventing deeper retracements from turning into sustained recoveries.

The lack of accumulation during support tests is what makes the current decline more fragile. Without a base of long-term liquidity, retests of structure become progressively weaker, increasing the probability of a clean breakdown if selling persists.

Derivatives positioning shows fading conviction

The derivatives landscape is also showing stress. Open interest has dropped 8.41 percent to $3.39 billion, signaling that traders are closing positions rather than adding risk. This decline creates less fuel for counter-trend rallies and reduces the probability of a sharp short squeeze.Daily volume rose 12.24 percent, indicating active participation during the selloff. Yet the lack of OI expansion shows these moves are driven largely by position unwinds, not fresh bets. Options open interest rose by 6.43 percent, but options volume remains modest relative to futures and does not offset the broader decline in leveraged exposure.

Top-trader metrics add to the cautious tone. Binance’s long-short ratio sits near 1.25, signaling light bullish attempts but nothing resembling the aggressive positioning needed to counter sustained spot outflows. Across major exchanges, sentiment remains neutral to soft.

Technical structure moves into a decisive zone

The daily chart now shows XRP pinned beneath the 20-day EMA at $2.25, the 50-day EMA at $2.43, and the 100-day EMA at $2.56. All slope downward and form a tight resistance cluster. The stacked EMAs reflect a mature downtrend, where each bounce gets absorbed quickly.Price is coiling between two long-standing levels: the descending trendline near $2.4 and the rising base near $1.9. The triangle has narrowed significantly, raising the stakes around this latest support test. The daily RSI near 32 shows strain but not capitulation, indicating controlled selling rather than panic.

XRP price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

A break below $1.9 exposes the $1.75 to $1.78 liquidity pocket, followed by a deeper zone near $1.60 to $1.65. These areas represent previous accumulation phases from mid-year and would likely attract buyers only if flows begin to stabilize.

A recovery above $2.25 is the earliest sign that momentum is stabilizing. A full shift in structure requires a break above $2.4, which would invalidate the descending trendline that has governed price action since July.

XRP enters a high-stakes moment as support tightens

XRP is approaching a critical point where compression, weakening flows, and fading derivatives positioning intersect. The ability of the $1.9 support to hold will shape sentiment heading into December. If spot outflows continue at this pace, sellers retain a clear advantage. For bulls, the burden of proof is high. They must defend support and reclaim the EMA cluster before any meaningful recovery develops.

In earlier discussions, we highlighted that XRP remained trapped beneath its EMA stack with every rally failing at the descending trendline. Today’s decline fits the same narrative, with flows and derivatives positioning weakening further as the triangle reaches its apex.

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