Polkadot price prediction: Oversold signals? DOT slides below $2.40 amid bearish outlook

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Polkadot slides 8.42% today

Highlights

Polkadot initiated its v2.0.0 upgrade proposal on November 4, transitioning asset, governance, and treasury management to the new Assets Hub.
The upgrade launches Polkadot's 'high-performance era' with the introduction of the next-generation JAM core technology stack, as unveiled at the Sub0 conference.
Over the past week, Polkadot saw more than $150 million in USDC inflows and became the first blockchain ecosystem included in Hong Kong's 'Strategic Enterprise Plan.'

Network upgrade and strong inflows propel Polkadot transformation

Polkadot has initiated its v2.0.0 upgrade proposal, activating the transition to Polkadot 2.0 and moving core functions such as asset, governance, and treasury management to the new Assets Hub as of November 4. This milestone launches the network's 'high-performance era' and introduces the next-generation JAM core technology stack, as highlighted by Dr. Gavin Wood at the Sub0 conference. In addition, over the past week, the platform has experienced more than $150 million in USDC inflows and became the first blockchain ecosystem recognized in Hong Kong's 'Strategic Enterprise Plan.'

Oversold momentum and resistance reinforce deepening seller control

Technical signals for DOT remain bearish, with the price below short, medium, and long-term moving averages. Dynamic resistance is established by the Ichimoku Kijun at $2.904, while the closest support sits near $2.266. Market momentum is deeply negative, with MACD and ADX both emphasizing a downtick, and oscillators such as RSI (31.38), Stoch RSI (0.0), and CCI (-140.21) confirming oversold conditions. Persistent seller dominance is seen in the Bull/Bear Power readings, and the Awesome Oscillator's sell signal complements this negative outlook.

Low reversal odds as DOT volatility sustains downside risk

For the next five trading days, DOT is projected to fluctuate in a range between $2.10 and $2.37, aligning with recent volatility patterns and sustained downside pressure. The probability of a sustained reversal is low, with less than a 20% chance of upward movement. The base scenario expects sideways movement within the current band, with a potential recovery only if DOT breaks above the $2.90 Kijun resistance. A bearish breakdown below $2.10 could trigger further declines.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Polkadot’s fundamental progress contrasts with its technical weakness. He sees bearish pressure dominating as price struggles below major moving averages and momentum signals remain negative. Despite inflows and positive developments, the recovery scenario is unlikely without a decisive move above $2.90. "Until DOT breaks the $2.90 resistance, caution is warranted and risks remain to the downside."

Previously it was noted that Polkadot had finalized its Polkadot 2.0 upgrade, marking significant network and governance improvements. Momentum indicators at the time suggested a continuation of the downtrend, with further declines likely as highlighted in further declines likely as upside probabilities remain limited.

Source of Data: DOT Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.