Strategy claims Bitcoin reserves can withstand plunge to $25,000
Strategy — the Bitcoin-heavy firm formerly known as MicroStrategy — says its balance sheet can withstand deep market stress, confirming that its assets-to-debt collateral ratio would remain at 2.0x even if Bitcoin plunged to $25,000.
This level is far below the company’s $74,000 average purchase price and would represent a severe breakdown in the market, reports BeInCrypto.
The reassurance arrives at a difficult moment: Strategy’s stock has fallen 49% since early October, and the firm faces possible expulsion from MSCI equity indices, with a decision expected in January 2026. Still, the company argues that its liability structure is strongly overcollateralized by its massive Bitcoin position, presenting a far more resilient financial picture than its stock performance suggests.
Strategy’s $16B liability stack backed 3.6x by BTC reserves
In a detailed breakdown, the firm highlighted what it calls the “BTC Rating” — a measure comparing the value of its BTC holdings against its outstanding obligations. At a current Bitcoin price of roughly $87,800, Strategy holds 649,870 BTC worth nearly $57 billion, against $8.214 billion in convertible debt and $7.779 billion in preferred equity.
This yields a consolidated BTC Rating of 3.6x, meaning Strategy holds more than three and a half times the value of its total $15.993 billion obligations in Bitcoin. Even stress scenarios remain robust: at $74,000 BTC, total asset-to-convertible-debt coverage stands at 5.9x; at $25,000 BTC, it remains 2.0x, implying substantial cushion even in a severe downturn. The company says this overcollateralization gives it long-term stability, strategic flexibility, and a stronger credit profile than traditional balance sheet metrics might imply.
Market pressures mount as index risk grows, but Strategy adapts
Despite the firm’s financial buffer, external pressures continue to build. Strategy’s stock remains down sharply, the MSCI index review threatens billions in potential outflows, and the company was excluded from the S&P 500. JPMorgan estimates that MSCI’s removal could trigger $2.8 billion in forced selling, rising to $8.8 billion if other index providers follow suit.
The company has also paused its six-week Bitcoin buying streak as its market-NAV premium cools. Still, Strategy is shifting its operational posture: blockchain intelligence firm Arkham reported the company moved more than 58,000 BTC to Fidelity Custody over the past two months, part of a broader plan to distribute custodial risk across multiple regulated providers. Altogether, Strategy’s structurally strong BTC-backed balance sheet, diversified custody approach, and long-term treasury strategy position the company to weather volatility — even as market headwinds and regulatory uncertainty intensify.
Recently we wrote that Bitcoin is trading near $87,487, extending its red-month trajectory as November remains one of the weakest periods of the current cycle.
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