Solana struggles near $135 as spot outflows accelerate and trend pressure deepens

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Solana tests $135 base

Highlights

- Solana trades near $135 after breaking its long-term trendline for the first time since April.

- Spot outflows remain heavy, with nearly $58M leaving exchanges on November 26.

- Derivatives positioning leans long, raising the risk of unwinds if Solana fails to reclaim resistance.

That break marked a decisive shift in momentum, and lower highs throughout November confirm that the broader trend remains firmly aligned with sellers. Recent price action shows Solana finding temporary stability in the $122 to $130 demand zone. This area has attracted buyers throughout the year, and the latest defense helped the Parabolic SAR flip below price for the first time in several sessions. The shift signals that immediate downside momentum has cooled. Even so, Solana continues to sit below every major dynamic resistance level, and rallies toward $150 or $160 remain vulnerable without stronger spot demand.

SOL price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

The Supertrend indicator adds to the challenge. It remains firmly bearish at $162, a level that has capped every rebound since the breakdown. A recovery through this zone would indicate genuine structural improvement, but Solana currently lacks the underlying flows necessary to sustain a move that deep into overhead resistance.

Spot flows and derivatives positioning show imbalance

Spot flow data reinforces the caution. Coinglass recorded a net –$57.85 million in outflows on November 26, extending a long streak of selling across September and November. During much of the downturn, flows repeatedly printed –$100 million to –$200 million per day, showing persistent rotation of liquidity back to exchanges. The market has not seen meaningful accumulation since early summer, and the latest readings confirm that sellers remain in control of the spot market.

Derivatives data also presents a mixed profile. Open interest slipped 1.7 percent to $6.96 billion, moving in line with price and signaling reduced speculative participation rather than fresh positioning. Options volume fell sharply by 50 percent, reflecting a pullback from high-volatility trades.

Long-short ratios tell a different story. Binance’s top traders hold a 4.68 long-short ratio, while OKX shows 2.9. This skew reveals that leveraged traders remain heavily long even as spot flows remain decisively negative. When such imbalances appear during a downtrend, the risk of forced long unwinds rises sharply if price fails to reclaim resistance.

The next major support rests at $122.58. A breakdown below this level would expose the deeper $110 area, which aligns with September’s high-volume node and marks the lower edge of the year’s broader liquidity range. On the upside, buyers face layered resistance zones beginning at $145, followed by the Supertrend barrier at $162 and the broken trendline near $180. Reclaiming $162 would be the earliest signal of meaningful bullish reversal. Until then, the broader market structure continues to lean defensive.

Outlook: Can Solana stabilize above the $122 zone

Solana shows early signs of stabilization after a steep multi-week decline, but the underlying data still favors caution. Persistent negative spot flows, fading open interest, and the failure to break dynamic resistance suggest that upside attempts may remain limited unless accumulation returns. A close above $145 would mark the first constructive step toward recovery, while a break below $122 would likely trigger another leg lower as long-heavy derivative positions unwind.

In earlier discussions, we highlighted that Solana’s long-term trendline served as the backbone of its 2024–2025 rally and that a clean break below it would trigger a deeper corrective phase. That scenario has now materialized, and the market is attempting to stabilize in the same demand zone we previously identified as the next critical support.

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