USD/ILS holds near ₪2.9846 resistance as US 10-year Treasury yield stays elevated

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US Dollar vs Israeli Shekel up 0.5%

Highlights

Recent U.S. inflation and consumption data caused initial volatility but 10-year Treasury yields held near 4.7%, steadying support for the dollar.
Shifting global rate expectations have established a balanced tone for USD/ILS, with short-term flows stabilizing around the current range.
USD/ILS trades with short- and medium-term upward momentum but faces overbought technical conditions, with an expected range of ₪2.955 to ₪2.9846 over the next 2 to 3 days.

Balanced tone for USD/ILS as global yields underpin demand

Recent U.S. inflation and consumption data led to a short-lived dip in Treasuries and the US dollar, as shifting rate expectations influenced initial market sentiment. However, the 10-year Treasury yield ultimately stayed around 4.70%, providing ongoing support for the dollar and helping to stabilize flow into USD/ILS. These macroeconomic signals have shaped a balanced tone for the pair, with global rate dynamics continuing to guide near-term demand.

Uptrend momentum stretched as overbought signals emerge

Technical levels show USD/ILS trading above the MA-20 and MA-50 on the H1 chart, while still positioned below the long-term MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun, set at ₪2.9607, is acting as immediate support. Momentum remains robust, reflected by positive MACD and ADX readings, and buyers are dominant as confirmed by Bull/Bear Power and the Awesome Oscillator. With RSI at 68.22, alongside both Stochastic RSI and CCI in overbought territory, conditions indicate that upside momentum may be stretched and warrant attention to a potential reversal or consolidation.

Gains constrained near resistance as overbought risks limit upside

In the short term, USD/ILS is anticipated to fluctuate within the ₪2.955 to ₪2.9846 range based on typical volatility. The probability of an upward move stands at 59%, but overbought indicators argue against aggressive entries at current levels. Baseline expectations call for price action to remain in this corridor, though a push above resistance could extend gains, while a move beneath immediate support would shift bias toward a short-term correction.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees USD/ILS as supported by resilient U.S. yields and firm global rate dynamics. He believes demand for the dollar remains underpinned by strong macro signals, even with some overbought technical readings. The analyst notes that while price could extend above resistance, caution is warranted due to stretched momentum. In his words: "With international rate supports intact, I expect USD/ILS to remain well-bid, but smart positioning is key as overbought signals emerge."

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent bearish momentum was likely to keep USD/ILS under downside control. With technical signals now pointing to stretched upside conditions and the pair approaching overbought levels, traders should monitor for any reversal cues that could prompt a near-term correction or consolidation.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.