US Treasury long-dated debt buyback expansion: USD/UZS resistance levels in focus

Traders Union
All News
Currency
US Dollar vs Uzbekistani Som up 0.5% today

Highlights

The US Treasury will double its buyback size for long-dated debt to at least $4 billion per operation from September 9 to November 4.
Expanded Treasury buybacks are intended to boost US bond market liquidity and could influence demand between the US Dollar and emerging currencies such as the Uzbekistani Som.
USD/UZS trades above short- and medium-term moving averages but remains in a bearish long-term setup, with next 2-3 day range expected between UZS11,740 and UZS11,894 and a 67% probability of downside.

Buyback expansion fuels liquidity and cross-currency positioning shift

The US Treasury Department will expand its buyback operations for long-dated government debt from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per transaction, effective September 9 through November 4, according to Investing.com. This policy move is intended to inject additional liquidity into the US bond market, which may affect cross-border capital flows and shift relative demand between the US Dollar and emerging market currencies like the Uzbekistani Som. As a result, market participants have positioned for possible fluctuations in USD/UZS as these operations approach.

Momentum split as oversold oscillators meet resistance ceiling

USD/UZS sits above both its MA-20 and MA-50 thresholds but remains below the daily MA-200 located at UZS12,086. Immediate support is found at the Ichimoku Kijun positioned at UZS11,779. On the momentum side, MACD signals a Sell, ADX sits at Neutral, and RSI shows oversold conditions, echoed by CCI verification. Stoch RSI flags a potential short-term rebound, while Bull/Bear Power and the Awesome Oscillator reinforce ongoing seller dominance. Divergence between persistently oversold oscillators and negative momentum underscores the current indecision as price approaches the top of today's low-volatility range.

Downward bias dominates within tightening volatility band

In the short term, USD/UZS is expected to consolidate between UZS11,740 and UZS11,894, a volatility band that aligns with recent price action. There is a 33% probability of an upward move and a 67% probability of a decline, suggesting a downward bias under current conditions. Should resistance near UZS11,894 be broken, a bullish swing could emerge, while a drop below the UZS11,779 support would likely trigger further downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the USD/UZS as supported in the short term by improving US market liquidity from Treasury buybacks. He notes that risks from oscillators and negative momentum limit aggressive upside but maintains a constructive outlook due to the macro backdrop. The analyst believes the probability of a downward move is higher, but a move above UZS11,894 could open up new opportunities. "If the USD/UZS clears resistance at UZS11,894, I expect renewed bullish momentum in line with growing US market liquidity."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/UZS was entrenched in a bearish trend driven predominantly by technical weakness and sustained downside momentum. With current price action showing consolidation above short- and medium-term averages but capped by long-term resistance, traders should closely monitor potential shifts as US Treasury buyback operations approach, as heightened volatility could trigger decisive moves outside the established range.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.