US Dollar vs Polish Zloty holds gains as expectations for Fed tightening rise amid bullish technicals

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Usd/pln rises 0.88% today

Highlights

The US Dollar strengthened against the Polish Zloty, supported by higher oil prices and a rise in US 10-year Treasury yields to their highest since 2007.
No domestic policy changes or local developments affected the Polish Zloty during this period.
USD/PLN maintains a bullish structure with positive momentum and a projected range of zł3.7626 to zł3.8274 over the next five trading days.

Greenback strength persists on US rate hike expectations, local Zloty factors muted

The US Dollar has gained strength against the Polish Zloty, fueled by higher oil prices and a rise in US 10-year Treasury yields to levels last seen in 2007. This move has reinforced market anticipation of a potential Federal Reserve rate hike. There were no local developments or policy changes specific to the Polish Zloty during this period.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that the recent USD/PLN strength is driven by global factors and not local Polish developments. He points out the risks of overextended price action, with several technical indicators flagging overbought conditions and signs of momentum divergence. Kharitonov is skeptical of sustained upside as the ADX signals weak trend strength and the MACD remains neutral. The dominance of buyers may fade quickly if macro tailwinds reverse or if traders take profits near resistance. "I remain cautious as heightened volatility and lopsided sentiment suggest a pullback is likely if external drivers waver," he says.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the bullish structure of USD/PLN is solidly intact as the pair trades above key moving averages. He highlights strong US economic signals and elevated Treasury yields as tailwinds for further growth. Karapetjanc believes the market offers multiple setups for buyers, especially if resistance at zł3.8274 breaks. "With the uptrend well-supported by macro factors, I expect more upside as opportunities remain compelling this week," he adds.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, observes that USD/PLN has reached near-term highs with upside momentum but faces mixed technical signals. He notes the divergence between momentum oscillators and trend indicators, suggesting tactical caution for new entries. Mehta recommends watching for a potential breakout above zł3.8274 or a fading rally as volatility increases. "If price consolidates here, a contrarian short setup may emerge if momentum continues to stall," he comments.

Bullish structure persists as price nears resistance, but momentum splits

USD/PLN trades above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages (zł3.7248, zł3.7365, zł3.6823), reflecting positive short-, medium-, and long-term momentum and confirming a bullish structure. The pair is consolidating near the near-term floor of zł3.7903, with resistance at zł3.8274. Daily momentum signals a mixed picture. The MACD shows a neutral stance while the ADX signals a weak trend. The RSI indicates a buy bias near 63, yet both the Stochastic RSI and CCI warn of overbought conditions. Bull/Bear Power is positive (0.0373), confirming buyers dominate intraday momentum, with the Awesome Oscillator also in alignment. The pair advanced to zł3.795, rising 0.88% on the session after opening nearly flat, with the price sitting near the daily high and intraday volatility at 0.89%. This mix of strong gains and overbought indicators suggests buyers are pressing the pair higher, although signals are starting to diverge.

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/PLN maintained a broadly bullish outlook, with technical momentum favoring further gains. The current article builds on that assessment by highlighting renewed upward pressure from external macro factors, and traders should watch for a decisive move above zł3.8274 as a potential trigger for additional upside.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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