US Dollar vs Yen edges higher as technical rebound tests session highs

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Us dollar rises 0.71% vs yen today

Highlights

USD/JPY trades at 156.2, remaining below key moving averages, indicating a persistent short-, medium-, and long-term downtrend.
Bearish signals dominate across technical momentum indicators, with selling pressure forecast and sellers retaining control.
For the next 5 trading days, USD/JPY is expected to fluctuate between 155.21 and 157.19, with a 62% probability of a downward move.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees USD/JPY attempt a technical rebound but remains skeptical due to the persistent bearish structure. He notes the pair is trading below all key moving averages, with momentum signals leaning heavily toward further downside. The lack of any supportive news background further weakens the buy case, as sentiment and macro factors provide no offset to the prevailing sell bias. Kharitonov warns that short-term recoveries should not be mistaken for trend reversals. He emphasizes, "Sustained selling pressure and failed attempts to reclaim technical levels suggest any bullish move is likely to be short-lived."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, acknowledges current bearish momentum but spots opportunity within the defined volatility band between ¥155.21 and ¥157.19. He views the price action near session highs as a constructive signal, indicating strengthening demand and the potential for a bullish shift if resistance at ¥156.65 breaks. Despite absent news flows, Karapetjanc remains confident about upside scenarios and sees scope for active setups as the pair consolidates. He states, "The chart structure offers bulls a strong springboard — I expect further attempts to break higher, with attractive risk-reward for tactical traders."

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, sees sentiment turning cautiously optimistic as USD/JPY pushes closer to intraday highs but remains capped by resistance. He notes short-term signals are mixed — sellers dominate the broader trend, yet near-term volatility provides trading windows. Turakhiya highlights an oversold reading in several momentum indicators, hinting at a possible rapid bounce if buyers step in. He concludes, "For now, traders should watch for quick, sentiment-driven moves both ways, as volatility creates room for nimble intraday strategies."

Bearish momentum prevails as key averages cap rebound

USD/JPY extends its rebound, trading at ¥156.2 and remaining below all key moving averages: MA-20 (¥156.77), MA-50 (¥158.74), and MA-200 (¥158.86). This setup points to short-, medium-, and long-term pressure from sellers, with a bearish alignment between MA-50 and MA-200 confirming the prevailing downtrend. The near-term ceiling stands at ¥156.65 (Ichimoku Kijun), while immediate support is at ¥155.93 (today's high). Momentum indicators show a predominantly bearish tone. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Average Directional Index (ADX) both signal selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40.27, Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at -54.23, and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) at -0.1 all favor sellers, with BBP indicating sellers dominate and an oversold forecast. Stochastic RSI and the Awesome Oscillator present neutral signals, highlighting divergence within the broader bearish bias. The pair opened nearly flat and currently trades near the session high after rising by 1.09, or 0.71%. Intraday volatility is modest at 0.66%. There is continued strength toward the session highs, but bearish momentum indicators prevent a clear reversal bias.

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/JPY remained under broad downside pressure, with technical signals highlighting persistent bearish momentum. The latest rebound confirms only limited upside, so traders should focus on whether the pair can decisively break above ¥156.65 to challenge the prevailing downtrend.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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