EUR/TRY technical analysis: Flat near ₺55.7548 resistance limits moves

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Euro vs Turkish Lira drops 0.54% today

Highlights

Turkish authorities liquidated over 100 investment funds worth $18 billion, directly impacting capital flows and Turkish lira liquidity.
Regulatory actions including relaxed capital and margin requirements contributed to a $12 billion rise in lira deposits by September 15.
EUR/TRY trades below key moving averages with strong bearish momentum, projected to range from ₺55.2796 to ₺55.8352 over the next 2 to 3 days.

Lira strength intensifies as fund liquidation boosts liquidity and discipline

Turkish authorities have recently liquidated over 100 investment funds worth approximately $18 billion, a sweeping action that directly altered capital flows and boosted Turkish lira liquidity, according to Dailysabah. These measures, including relaxed capital and margin requirements, aimed to stabilize the financial system and supported a notable $12 billion increase in Turkish lira deposits by September 15, as reported by Bloomberg. The involvement of state banks Işbank and Ziraat Bank in overseeing the liquidation process, alongside the expansion of a criminal probe, introduced additional regulatory pressure and market discipline, which together shifted investor preferences and influenced exchange rate dynamics.

Bearish momentum confirmed as EUR/TRY holds below key resistance

On the hourly chart, EUR/TRY is trading below its MA-20 at ₺55.7887 and MA-50 at ₺55.8805, but remains above the long-term MA-200 at ₺53.2899. Immediate resistance is found at the Ichimoku Kijun level of ₺55.7548. Momentum readings are negative, with RSI at 29.9 (Sell), MACD and ADX signaling further downward movement, and CCI pointing to an oversold condition. Stoch RSI is neutral, while intraday momentum remains on the sellers' side, as confirmed by negative Bull/Bear Power and the Awesome Oscillator.

Consolidation likely as sellers dominate within defined volatility band

For the next 2–3 trading days, EUR/TRY is expected to consolidate within a volatility band of ₺55.2796 to ₺55.8352. The probability of an upward move is very low, while a downside break below the lower range would reinforce bearish pressure. A bullish scenario only develops if price decisively surpasses resistance at ₺55.7548, but current conditions suggest sellers remain in control.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees continued pressure on EUR/TRY as both technicals and institutional flows work against a bullish rebound. He notes that the Turkish authorities’ decisive interventions have boosted lira liquidity and shifted investor preference towards local currency. The analyst believes downside risks outweigh upside potential unless ₺55.7548 is reclaimed. "Unless EUR/TRY decisively breaks through resistance, I remain cautious and see little reason to expect a sustained rally here."

Earlier, analysts noted that Euro vs Turkish Lira maintained a broadly bullish long-term structure despite facing near-term downside pressure. The current shift in technical momentum and increased Turkish lira liquidity adds further weight to short-term bearish risks, making a potential downside break below ₺55.2796 a critical level for traders to monitor.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.