USD/JPY tests the 200-day moving average: Technical outlook

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US Dollar vs Yen drops 0.61% today

Highlights

USD/JPY trades below all key moving averages, indicating strong bearish pressure across intraday and long-term timeframes.
Momentum indicators confirm a pronounced sell bias, with negative intraday dynamics and little evidence of oversold extremes or divergences.
Expected range for the next 2 to 3 days is ¥156.06 to ¥157.62, with high probability of further declines unless price breaks above ¥157.64 resistance.

Bearish momentum confirmed by negative signals and resistance cap

USD/JPY trades below the MA-20 and MA-50 on the hourly chart, with the price also under the MA-200 on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun at ¥157.64 serves as immediate resistance, limiting any upward moves. On the indicator front, MACD and ADX both show bearish momentum, while RSI indicates a sell signal but does not signal extreme oversold levels. Stoch RSI and CCI read as neutral, suggesting no extreme positions, and Bull/Bear Power remains negative, showing sellers are in control of the intraday momentum. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral and does not confirm a specific trend direction. No significant divergences are observed among the oscillators, and overall, momentum and price action remain aligned with existing selling pressure.

Downside risk elevated with limited rebound chances in near term

Over the next 2 to 3 trading days, the expected trading range is between ¥156.06 and ¥157.62, representing a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of an immediate upward move is very low, while further downside is highly likely. Price is expected to remain within this corridor for the short term. A breakout above ¥157.64 would open the door for a bullish reversal, but if USD/JPY falls below ¥156.06, it would signal renewed bearish momentum.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent weakness in USD/JPY as it trades below its key moving averages. He notes that bearish technical signals and the lack of supportive news keep the pressure on the downside. Karapetjanc maintains a constructive outlook on tactical opportunities but stresses that price action must improve before confidence returns. "If USD/JPY remains capped below ¥157.64, sellers have the advantage and I expect further declines in the coming days."

Previously it was reported that Japanese policymakers remain alert to yen weakness and that intervention risk continues to shape investor focus. The current technical setup reinforces the prevailing downside bias, with ¥156.06 as a critical level to monitor for potential bearish acceleration in the near term.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.