Australian Dollar vs US Dollar stays under pressure as bearish momentum dominates technical outlook

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Aud/usd slides 0.54% today

Highlights

AUD/USD trades below key moving averages, defining a bearish trend across short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes.
Momentum and volatility indicators confirm strong selling pressure, with oversold readings from RSI and CCI across multiple horizons.
Forecast range for the next five days is $0.6928 to $0.7029, with a low probability of a sustained rebound above $0.7029.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, highlights that AUD/USD is under intense selling pressure and has broken below all major moving averages. He notes that the absence of relevant news leaves technical and sentiment factors unchecked, compounding uncertainty. Momentum indicators and oscillator readings confirm a bearish regime, with oversold conditions failing to spark buying interest. The analyst expresses concern about persistent downside risk and limited prospects for reversal. "Sellers clearly have control, and new longs should remain cautious as no fundamental triggers support a turnaround."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the current consolidation in AUD/USD as a healthy correction within a volatile market structure. He notes that despite the drop, the pair is trading near well-defined support, offering opportunity for traders to watch for a bullish reversal above $0.7029. The macro context could create a foundation for renewed buying if risk appetite returns. "The market offers multiple setups around these levels, and a breakout higher may unlock further growth in the near term."

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, believes AUD/USD faces strong technical headwinds with sellers dominating price action. He points out the oversold signals on several momentum indicators but notes a lack of corroborating fundamental news. "Contrarian traders may watch for a tactical bounce if price tests $0.6928, but conviction stays low without a clear macro catalyst."

Bearish trend confirmed as moving averages fall and momentum weakens

AUD/USD has fallen below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages ($0.7121, $0.7117, and $0.7068), signaling sustained pressure from sellers on short-, medium-, and long-term horizons. The Ichimoku Kijun at $0.7121 serves as resistance, with the near-term ceiling at $0.7005 and the near-term floor at $0.6928 defining the immediate trading range. Momentum signals are skewed bearishly, as the MACD and ADX both remain in sell mode, indicating persistent downside momentum. RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI all show oversold conditions, while BBP and the Awesome Oscillator remain negative, confirming the dominance of sellers and the ongoing downside risk.

Previously it was reported that persistent downside pressure in AUD/USD was driven by both a hawkish RBA stance and prevailing bearish technical signals. The current article further strengthens this view, with sellers retaining control and the risk of a decisive move beyond the $0.6928–$0.7029 trading range remaining a key focus for traders.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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