Can GBP/AUD break A$1.913 resistance as RBA lifts rates?

Traders Union
All News
Currency
Pound Sterling vs Australian Dollar up 0.51%

Highlights

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark interest rate to 4.6%, the highest level in fifteen years, but expressed uncertainty about future hikes.
Second quarter UK GDP was revised upward, supporting the Pound Sterling against major counterparts including the Australian Dollar.
GBP/AUD maintains a bullish trend above key moving averages with indicators showing overbought conditions and a projected range of A$1.894 to A$1.913 over the next several sessions.

Sentiment tilts as RBA caution meets UK GDP surprise

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its key interest rate to 4.60%, the highest in fifteen years, a move that typically supports the Australian dollar by elevating yield appeal; however, the accompanying signals of hesitation over future hikes have shifted sentiment, according to Poundsterlinglive. At the same time, a positive surprise in the form of an upwardly revised second quarter UK GDP has added support for the Pound Sterling, as reported by Fxstreet. These combined developments have contributed to recent flows in the Pound Sterling vs Australian Dollar currency pair, reflecting a nuanced balance of central bank policy expectations and fundamental economic data.

Overbought signals emerge as upside momentum tests boundaries

GBP/AUD is currently trading above the MA-20 at A$1.8958, the MA-50 at A$1.8922, and the MA-200 at A$1.8989. The Ichimoku Kijun level at A$1.8966 is acting as immediate support. Momentum indicators, including MACD and ADX, indicate ongoing buying pressure. However, RSI stands at 72.4, while both Stochastic RSI and CCI also signal overbought conditions, suggesting stretched short-term moves. Bull/Bear Power confirms intraday dominance from buyers, and the Awesome Oscillator continues to reinforce the prevailing upward tone.

Consolidation likely as volatility bands limit downside risk

For the next two to three sessions, GBP/AUD is expected to remain within a range of A$1.894 to A$1.913, reflecting a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The likelihood of further upward moves is high, whereas the probability of a downside break is low in the immediate term. The most likely scenario is a period of consolidation within this zone; a bullish breakout above resistance could open the path to new highs, while a drop below immediate support at the Ichimoku Kijun would suggest a potential short-term pullback.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that GBP/AUD is showing a short-term bullish bias after the RBA’s rate hike and an upside surprise in UK GDP. However, he believes overbought signals and uncertain policy sentiment limit the pair’s upside. Key levels like the Ichimoku Kijun and MA-20 must hold to avoid a short-term pullback. "Until the pair clears A$1.913 with conviction, I remain cautious and prefer watching for signs of consolidation or reversal."

Earlier, analysts noted that GBP/AUD was entrenched in a bearish trend as persistent technical selling limited recovery attempts. The current move above key moving averages and renewed buying signals a change in short-term dynamics, making the area between A$1.894 and A$1.913 crucial for monitoring potential breakout or reversal opportunities over the next several sessions.

Source of Data: GBP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.