Rising US Treasury yields: EUR/IDR resistance levels in focus

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Euro vs Rupiah slides 0.35% today

Highlights

The Indonesian Rupiah weakened against the US Dollar as stronger US Treasury yields and higher oil prices increased demand for the greenback.
Valuation pressure from these global drivers is affecting risk sentiment and impacting flows into the Euro vs Rupiah cross.
EUR/IDR trades below key moving averages with technical indicators showing dominant selling pressure and a probable trading range of Rp20,128 to Rp20,331.

Rupiah pressured by US yields, oil rally shifts cross flows

According to Fxstreet, the Indonesian Rupiah weakened against the US Dollar on Thursday as rising US Treasury yields and elevated oil prices drove renewed demand for the greenback. These conditions place valuation pressure on the Rupiah and shape broader risk sentiment, which in turn can influence flows into the Euro vs Indonesian Rupiah cross. Shifts in USD and EUR relationships to the Rupiah may continue to inform short-term forex adjustments in regional emerging markets.

Broad resistance capped by oversold momentum and mixed signals

EUR/IDR remains below the MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200 levels, confirming broad technical resistance overhead. The Ichimoku Kijun stands at Rp20,298 and acts as immediate resistance on attempts to rebound. Momentum readings are mixed: MACD signals Sell, while ADX indicates a continued buying trend. Oscillators including RSI, Stochastic RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power all point to oversold conditions and sustained seller strength. The Awesome Oscillator remains neutral and does not validate a clear directional bias.

Neutral-to-bearish setup as lower corridor limits upside risk

Over the short term, EUR/IDR is likely to trade within a typical volatility band between Rp20,128 and Rp20,331. There is a 23% probability of an upward move and a 77% chance of further downside. A neutral-to-bearish baseline scenario expects price to hold in this corridor; only a breakout above Rp20,298 would signal potential recovery, while a fall through Rp20,128 would reinforce the case for new lows.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees EUR/IDR holding under major moving averages with seller control still evident. He notes that macro pressure from the stronger US Dollar and weaker Rupiah keeps the pair under technical resistance, while momentum signals conflict. For now, price remains confined within Rp20,128–Rp20,331, with greater risk to the downside. "There is no reason to expect meaningful recovery unless Rp20,298 is reclaimed — I stay defensive until that level breaks."

Earlier, analysts noted that EUR/IDR was under persistent selling pressure, with technicals and macroeconomic factors favoring a downside bias. The current analysis affirms this outlook, pointing to prevailing seller control and highlighting that a sustained move below Rp20,128 would increase downside risk in the near term.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.