Euro vs Rupee moves lower after pair remains below key moving averages

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Euro vs Indian rupee slides 0.50% today

Highlights

EUR/INR trades below all key moving averages, indicating persistent selling pressure across all timeframes.
Momentum and oscillator signals are negative and in an oversold zone, confirming continued downward momentum for the pair.
EUR/INR is projected to consolidate between ₹105.9789 and ₹107.599 over the next 5 trading days, with a 77% probability of further downside.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees pronounced technical weakness in EUR/INR. The pair stays pressured below all key moving averages, with selling momentum dominating all timeframes. Absence of news drivers means no fundamental support to counteract the persistent downtrend. Oscillators show oversold signals, but Kharitonov is wary as this can persist in weak markets. He stresses broad downside risk if support fails. "Traders should remain cautious — technical signals point to sustained vulnerabilities unless a meaningful reversal occurs."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, notes that EUR/INR retains its long-term bullish structure even amid recent pressure. He highlights the 50-day and 200-day moving averages alignment as a sign that the market's underlying trend is not broken. Karapetjanc stresses that price stabilization within the forecasted band offers opportunity for strategic positioning. Despite short-term weakness, he maintains optimism for a relief bounce as oversold signals accumulate. "I expect further growth opportunities above ₹107.599 — this market still offers setups for forward-looking traders."

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, observes EUR/INR bears are firmly in control in the short term. Daily sentiment points to cautious trading, with indicators highlighting oversold conditions. Oscillators hint at potential snapback plays, but conviction remains low for sustained upside. "Watch for intraday reversals at support near ₹106.7467 — opportunistic traders could find quick setups here."

Overlapping technical signals reinforce bearish momentum after failed upside gap

EUR/INR is trading below all key moving averages, with the current price at ₹106.789 sitting under the 20-day (₹108.9066), 50-day (₹109.9681), and 200-day (₹109.4668) averages. This configuration highlights sustained pressure from sellers across short, medium, and long timeframes, and the 50-day versus 200-day alignment signals the long-term trend remains technically bullish. The near-term ceiling for the pair is at ₹107.0968, with the immediate floor at ₹106.7467. Daily momentum is negative, as indicated by both the MACD (forecast: Strong Sell) and Average Directional Index (ADX) at Sell, confirming persistent downward momentum. Oscillators signal an oversold environment, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37.359 (Sell), Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at -72.746 (Sell), and Stochastic RSI at 78.0957 (Strong Sell). Bull/Bear Power (BBP) is marginally positive at 0.0967, indicating buyers have minor intraday dominance, but broader indicators suggest seller control. The pair has declined ₹0.5349 today (down 0.5%), opening with an upside gap of about ₹0.9869 (0.92%) before sliding toward its session lows. Price action remains near today’s low with intraday volatility at 1.75%, pointing to persistent pressure after the upside gap. Downward momentum and negative oscillator signals are broadly aligned, reinforcing the intraday weak tone.

Previously it was reported that Euro vs Rupee faced increasing downside risks as technical weakness and central bank intervention weighed on the pair. The current analysis reinforces this bearish outlook, with continued selling pressure placing the focus on the ₹105.9789 support as the key level to watch for potential further declines.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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