US Dollar vs Polish Zloty moves higher after strong performance across key moving averages

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Us dollar/zloty rises 0.77% today

Highlights

USD/PLN trades above its 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages, showing sustained bullish momentum across all timeframes.
Momentum indicators like MACD, ADX, CCI, and RSI generally give bullish or buy signals, though HMA and Awesome Oscillator urge some caution.
USD/PLN is forecast to consolidate between zł3.9133 and zł3.9598 with a 77% probability of an upward move.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the ongoing USD/PLN rally as technically robust but warns of over-reliance on momentum. He notes the lack of fundamental news, which leaves the move driven almost entirely by technical factors. Kharitonov highlights that while momentum signals are positive, the absence of fresh catalysts could make the trend fragile. He points out that a neutral Awesome Oscillator and oversold Stochastic RSI flag the risk of a quick reversal. He further emphasizes that price action near the upper end of the range may attract profit-taking or short setups. "The current uptrend may quickly fade without fresh drivers — traders should stay cautious and watch for invalidation below zł3.9133," he says.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes the USD/PLN bullish structure remains intact and signals further growth potential. He points to the firm multi-timeframe moving average alignment and strong buy momentum as presenting additional opportunity for trend-following strategies. Karapetjanc stresses that intraday buyers remain dominant, supporting upward extension to zł3.9598 and potentially higher. The constructive technical backdrop suggests market participants continue to favor USD/PLN over alternatives. "With upside signals prevailing and volatility contained, I expect further gains as the market offers multiple bullish setups," he states.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, notes that USD/PLN holds a steady bullish trajectory above key averages but flags the limited role of macro or news factors. He sees tactical opportunities for both breakout and mean-reversion plays within the defined range. Mehta highlights the potential for a move above zł3.9598 as a setup, while watching for signs of failed momentum that could offer contrarian entries. "Traders should monitor volatility bands closely — the first breach of support or resistance will define near-term momentum," Mehta advises.

Major moving averages confirm trend as momentum indicators stay bullish

USD/PLN is trading above its 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages (zł3.8754, zł3.789, and zł3.7178, respectively), confirming bullish momentum on short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes. The near-term ceiling is set at zł3.9598 and the floor at zł3.9323, with the prevailing structure supported by a bullish MA-50 vs MA-200 alignment and the Ichimoku Kijun at zł3.8349 serving as a distant trend guide. Momentum indicators present a largely bullish picture: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Average Directional Index (ADX) both signal buy, pointing to sustained upward momentum. Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in bullish territory but not overbought, Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is at a buy level, and Stochastic RSI reads oversold. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) above zero shows buyers are dominating intraday dynamics, although the Hull Moving Average (HMA) signals short-term caution. Awesome Oscillator is neutral rather than overtly reinforcing the trend. The pair is up zł0.0302 (0.77%) today, having opened nearly flat, and is currently trading near session highs with intraday volatility at 0.92%. The overall tone reflects steady strength toward the high end of the daily range.

Earlier, analysts noted that mixed signals from technical indicators and heightened policy risks were creating an uncertain outlook for USD/PLN. The current article strengthens the bullish scenario with more conclusive momentum readings, making potential moves above the zł3.9598 ceiling the key event to monitor in the near term.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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