USD/PLN remains range-bound amid strong US dollar and ongoing technical weakness

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US Dollar vs Złoty drops 0.55% today

Highlights

A member of Poland's Monetary Policy Council states the zloty remains strong despite four months of weakening against the US dollar.
The recent zloty decline is attributed mainly to external factors, particularly a stronger US dollar after a Federal Reserve rate hike.
USD/PLN price action trades below key short-term averages with bearish technical signals and a short-term range of 3.8771 to 3.9161, favoring further downside.

External dollar strength seen driving zloty’s recent decline

Poland's Monetary Policy Council member Przemyslaw Litwiniuk has commented that the zloty remains at a strong level, even after a four-month weakening trend. According to Investing.com, Litwiniuk attributed this softening mainly to external factors, particularly a strengthening US dollar following a recent rate hike by the Federal Reserve. This official perspective frames recent USD/PLN developments as a result of global monetary shifts rather than domestic economic pressures, helping the market interpret the currency's decline as externally driven.

Sustained selling pressure as key technical support holds

USD/PLN is currently trading below the MA-20 at 3.9125 and the MA-50 at 3.9093, but remains above the MA-200 at 3.7193. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at 3.9121, marking immediate resistance, while support rests near 3.8771. Technical indicators confirm the recent downside momentum: MACD and ADX both indicate persistent selling pressure. RSI, CCI, and Stoch RSI are situated in oversold or sell zones, and intraday Bull/Bear Power analysis shows sellers dominating. The Awesome Oscillator also points to ongoing downward movement with no divergence present.

Consolidation likely as bearish odds outweigh rebound

Looking ahead over the next two to three trading days, USD/PLN is expected to consolidate within a volatility band of 3.8771 to 3.9161. There is a 79% probability of further decline, compared to a 21% chance of a rebound. If resistance at 3.9121 is surpassed, a bullish scenario could emerge, but a breakdown below support at 3.8771 may lead to additional losses.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the recent USD/PLN decline as mainly driven by external factors, especially US monetary policy. He underscores that the Polish zloty’s medium-term resilience is supported by official commentary linking recent weakness to Fed action, not domestic issues. The analyst expects short-term volatility within the 3.8771–3.9161 range, with technicals favoring further downside but room for a rebound if resistance breaks. Karapetjanc maintains a constructive view on the zloty’s macro backdrop. "If the USD momentum fades, I believe the zloty’s underlying strength will reassert itself in the coming sessions."

Earlier, analysts noted that technical momentum had firmly favored further gains in USD/PLN, highlighting sustained bullish signals across multiple timeframe indicators. The current shift to downside momentum and dominance of selling pressure marks a clear reversal in the short term, with volatility between 3.8771 and 3.9161 likely to offer tactical trading opportunities as the pair tests both immediate support and resistance.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.