CBRT policy signals coincide with euro to Turkish lira exchange rate consolidation

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Euro vs Turkish Lira gains 0.53% today

Highlights

Turkish residents moved TL 800 billion into lira deposits during recent market turbulence, maintaining support for the local currency.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye is allowing a faster pace of lira depreciation, judging that the inflation impact of currency moves is moderating as economic activity slows.
EUR/TRY displays a strong bullish technical profile with active buyer momentum, trading near ₺55.3996 and an expected range of ₺55.1226 to ₺55.6766 for the next 2 to 3 days.

Domestic lira support and policy stance reduce currency risk volatility

Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) Governor Fatih Karahan reported that while there were outflows from investment funds during last month's market turbulence, Turkish residents largely maintained their preference for lira-denominated assets, with TL 800 billion transferring into bank deposits during the period, according to Dailysabah. This shift signals ongoing domestic support for the lira and provides underlying stability for the Turkish currency. Separately, Karahan indicated to investors in Bangkok that Turkey is permitting a faster pace of lira depreciation to avoid larger devaluation risks in the future, noting that the inflation transfer effect of currency moves has moderated as economic activity slows, Bloomberg reported. Together, these developments shape current expectations for Euro vs Turkish Lira by clarifying the CBRT's approach to managing exchange risks and liquidity.

Strong bullish momentum as technical signals confirm euro demand

On the technical front, EUR/TRY remains above the MA-20 and MA-50 on the H1 timeframe and continues to trade well above the MA-200 on the daily chart. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at ₺55.2201, acting as a near-term support area. Momentum indicators are robust: RSI stands at 61.76, both MACD and ADX signal buying control, and the Commodity Channel Index plus Bull/Bear Power highlight prevailing intraday demand for euros. Stochastic RSI is neutral, while the Awesome Oscillator maintains alignment with upward momentum.

Upside potential increases if resistance breaks amid consolidation

In the short term, EUR/TRY is expected to consolidate within a typical volatility band from ₺55.1226 to ₺55.6766 over the next 2–3 sessions. There is a high likelihood of further gains should the pair breach the upper end of this range. Conversely, a move below ₺55.2201 may trigger a brief corrective pullback toward lower supports before renewed range trading resumes.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the recent TL 800 billion inflow into lira deposits as a sign of resilient domestic demand for the Turkish currency despite earlier turbulence. He notes that technical indicators remain constructive for EUR/TRY, but policy signals from the CBRT suggest a calibrated approach to depreciation and risk control. The analyst maintains a cautious tactical stance given modest price action and a still-uncertain economic backdrop. "Until EUR/TRY breaks above ₺55.6766, I remain defensive and look for confirmation before considering further upside."

Previously it was reported that Euro vs Turkish Lira faced renewed selling pressure as technical signals indicated persistent near-term weakness. The latest technical and policy developments now introduce a more balanced scenario, and traders should watch for a breakout above the ₺55.6766 level to confirm potential upside momentum.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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