Australian dollar to Canadian dollar rate RBA minutes signal openness to hikes: AUD/CAD remains under pressure

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Australian dollar slides 0.9% vs Canadian

Highlights

The Reserve Bank of Australia confirmed it remains open to further interest rate hikes this year, potentially impacting yield differentials.
This readiness to tighten policy further can support Australian dollar demand but was not enough to offset broader selling pressure today.
AUD/CAD trades below key moving averages with strong bearish momentum, and the next 2 to 3 days are expected to see a range of C$0.9787 to C$0.9885 with high probability of further downside.

RBA’s hawkish stance outweighed by persistent selling pressure

Minutes released from the Reserve Bank of Australia's September meeting confirmed that the central bank remains open to additional interest rate increases this year, according to Rttnews. The stated willingness to tighten policy further can shift expectations for future yield differentials, which typically supports demand for the Australian dollar over peers. However, this signaling was not sufficient to counter broader selling pressure on the day.

Bearish momentum intensifies as key support levels tested

AUD/CAD is positioned below the MA-20 at C$0.9902 and the MA-50 at C$0.9924 on the H1 chart, while staying just above the MA-200 at C$0.9821. The immediate resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun level at C$0.9909, with C$0.9787 acting as a key support. Technical indicators confirm a bearish picture: MACD and ADX register sell signals, while RSI at 19.13, CCI, and Stoch RSI are all in oversold territory, signaling pronounced downside exhaustion. Bull/Bear Power points to strong intraday seller dominance, and the Awesome Oscillator continues to highlight negative momentum.

Downside favor grows as reversal prospects diminish within range

In the short term, the expected trading range for AUD/CAD is C$0.9787 to C$0.9885, reflecting the typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of an upward move is assessed as very low, with the chance of a downward move seen as high, making a reversal scenario much less likely. The baseline expectation is for the pair to remain rangebound inside this corridor. A sustained break above the Ichimoku Kijun and moving average resistance would be required for a bullish reversal, while a decisive move below the MA-200 and C$0.9787 support would open the way to additional downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, believes the hawkish tone from the RBA is not enough to alter the pair’s bearish technical setup. He sees current market sentiment and momentum as clearly favoring sellers, despite potential fundamental support for the Australian dollar. The analyst expects AUD/CAD to remain under pressure unless there is a sustained break above key resistance levels. "If buyers fail to reclaim the C$0.9900 zone soon, I expect further downside to test the support near C$0.9787."

Earlier, analysts noted that AUD/CAD was expected to consolidate as mixed technical signals pointed to near-term rangebound trading. Recent developments confirm a shift to a more bearish scenario, with additional downside now in focus should the pair breach support near C$0.9787.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.