Australian dollar to US dollar rate pressured by weak jobs data: Can AUD/USD hold recent gains?

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Australian dollar gains 0.53% to $0.6956

Highlights

Australian unemployment rose to 4.6% in September with about 40,000 jobs lost, erasing previous labor market gains.
The Australian dollar reached its weakest value against the US dollar since early July as traders lowered expectations of further RBA rate hikes.
AUD/USD trades in a short-term bullish setup but shows overbought signals, with next sessions expected between $0.6921 and $0.6991.

Labor data disappointment weighs on currency amid rate uncertainty

Weaker-than-expected employment data for September weighed on the Australian Dollar, signaling softness in the domestic labor market and altering the monetary policy outlook. According to FXStreet, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% alongside a contraction of approximately 40,000 jobs, erasing gains from July and dampening demand for the currency. Bloomberg reported that this backdrop drove the Australian dollar to its lowest level against the US dollar since early July as traders reassessed the likelihood of further Reserve Bank of Australia rate increases.

Mixed oscillator signals as key technical levels bound price action

AUD/USD currently trades above both the MA-20 and MA-50 moving averages, while remaining below the MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $0.6926, acting as immediate support. The expected range for the next sessions is between $0.6921 and $0.6991, with the upper boundary serving as primary resistance. Among oscillators, RSI signals a Buy and ADX supports a bullish tone; however, MACD and Awesome Oscillator are neutral, CCI indicates Overbought, and Stochastic RSI remains neutral. Bull/Bear Power signals buyer dominance on an intraday basis, though the mixed readings across momentum and oscillator indicators reflect ongoing divergence.

Consolidation risk rises as traders eye breakout cues

In the short term, AUD/USD is expected to consolidate within the $0.6921 to $0.6991 range, reflecting typical volatility relative to recent price action. The up probability stands at 53%, with downside risk at 47%. A sustained move higher would require breaking above range resistance, while a close below the support level at the Ichimoku Kijun at $0.6926 could trigger further declines. Traders should remain attentive to shifts in underlying momentum and potential volatility stemming from new data.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees short-term stability for AUD/USD despite recent labor market weakness. He believes macroeconomic data has pressured the pair but notes resilient price action above key technical levels. Sentiment remains constructive with only mild divergence in momentum indicators. "If $0.6926 holds as support, I expect buyers to maintain control and target the $0.6991 resistance in coming sessions."

Earlier, analysts noted that the Australian dollar came under renewed pressure following a rise in unemployment and weaker-than-expected labor data, leading markets to reassess the Reserve Bank's policy outlook. With recent data reaffirming labor market softness and mixed technical signals, traders should monitor $0.6926 as the critical support level that may dictate the next directional move for AUD/USD.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.