Australian Dollar vs US Dollar trades up after surprise rise in Australian unemployment

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Australian dollar rises 0.63% today

Highlights

Australia's unemployment rate increased to 4.7% from 4.6%, signaling growing labor market weakness.
The weaker jobs data reduced expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
AUD/USD remains under bearish pressure, trading below key moving averages with an 80% probability of a downward move toward $0.6905 over the next five days.

Rate hike outlook dims as labor data drives sentiment shift

The Australian Dollar versus US Dollar currency pair responded to new data showing Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.7% from 4.6% in August. This labor market weakness reduced expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Lower rate hike prospects continue to weigh on sentiment after the pair retreated from recent highs following the announcement.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent weakness in AUD/USD after the uptick in Australian unemployment. He points out the pair is trading below all major moving averages, which underscores sellers' dominance. The analyst notes divergent momentum indicators but emphasizes that bearish pressure remains across timeframes. He warns that oversold readings may not protect the pair if direction weakens further. "With macro data softening and bearish signals intact, I see limited upside with downside risks likely to prevail," Kharitonov says.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, views the AUD/USD structure as resilient despite negative employment data. He highlights the bullish tone of the longer-term trend given the prevailing MA-50 and MA-200 alignment. Karapetjanc sees opportunity for range trading, as short-term bearishness contrasts with the underlying bullish cycle. "Even with the temporary rate disappointment, the market offers setups for gains if $0.6978 breaks — the bullish structure remains intact," he states.

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, is skeptical about sustained AUD/USD recovery given the recent labor market setback. He argues that sentiment remains fragile due to reduced expectations for RBA hikes. Dele adds that modest intraday gains appear unstable against the broader downward bias. "Without a turnaround in economic sentiment, I see little reason to expect lasting upside in the coming sessions," Dele comments.

Bearish prices persist as momentum signals diverge at resistance

AUD/USD continues to trade below all three moving averages, with the current price at $0.6963 under the MA-20 at $0.6978, the MA-50 at $0.7087, and the MA-200 at $0.7059. This signals persistent bearish pressure across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons, with the near-term ceiling at $0.6978 and immediate support near the recent high of $0.6955; the longer-term trend remains bullish, confirmed by the MA-50 vs MA-200 alignment. Momentum signals are mixed: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Average Directional Index (ADX) both indicate strong selling pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) point to oversold conditions. Stochastic RSI reads neutral, and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) is slightly positive at 0.0005, showing buyers narrowly dominate intraday momentum, though CCI highlights oversold risk. The pair opened nearly flat and is trading near session highs after advancing $0.00437 (up 0.63%), with intraday volatility at 0.56%. This suggests moderate strength toward session highs with oscillators and momentum readings presenting a notable divergence.

Earlier, analysts noted that the Australian dollar faced ongoing pressure as softening labor data and mixed technical signals clouded the outlook for further gains against the US dollar. The latest increase in unemployment further reinforces downside risk, with traders advised to monitor the $0.6905 support as a pivotal level for near-term direction.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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