Australian dollar to Indian rupee rate holds steady as RBI restricts forward dollar purchases

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Australian Dollar vs rupee gains 0.71% today

Highlights

The Reserve Bank of India intervened in forex markets over the past week to support rupee liquidity and stability.
RBI imposed new restrictions on forward dollar purchases and spent $75 billion to $80 billion since June, reducing reserves to $734.6 billion.
AUD/INR trades with near-term bullish momentum but faces overbought signals, with the next 2 to 3 day range expected between ₹65.6064 and ₹66.6304.

RBI currency interventions tighten positions and stabilize rupee

The Reserve Bank of India's active foreign exchange interventions over the past week have provided direct liquidity support to the Indian rupee, limiting recent volatility and reinforcing currency stability, according to Business Standard. As part of these efforts, the RBI introduced new measures restricting forward dollar purchases, which pushed up forward premiums and curtailed speculative positioning in the rupee, also reported by Business Standard. Beyond near-term actions, the RBI has spent an estimated $75–80 billion on spot dollar sales and currency swaps since June, a strategy that has led to a drawdown in foreign-exchange reserves to $734.6 billion by early October. Additionally, the October 15 clarification on Foreign Exchange Risk Reserve requirements for rupee-linked derivatives improved regulatory transparency for banks and authorized dealers, according to Ndtvprofit.

Mixed technical signals as short-term momentum challenges long-term cap

On the technical front, AUD/INR is positioned above the MA-20 and MA-50 but remains capped by the MA-200 on the daily chart, indicating persistent long-term resistance. The Ichimoku Kijun line at ₹65.691 forms immediate support. MACD and ADX are signaling potential downside shifts, while RSI stands at 56.37 and suggests continued buy-side momentum. Both Stochastic RSI and CCI are in overbought territory, highlighting near-term stretched conditions. Bull/Bear Power shows intraday buyer dominance, and the Awesome Oscillator confirms underlying bid strength, though oscillators and momentum indicators reveal a clear divergence and a generally mixed technical picture.

Sideways bias expected as price tests key support and resistance

In the short term, AUD/INR is expected to trade within a typical volatility band from ₹65.6064 to ₹66.6304 over the next two to three sessions. The baseline scenario points to a sideways drift inside this corridor, with an equal probability of upward or downward movement. A break above resistance could trigger fresh highs, while a fall below immediate support would risk a deeper retracement.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, senior analyst at Traders Union, sees strong institutional support underpinning the rupee after the RBI’s recent direct interventions and regulatory clarifications. He believes this active approach stabilizes the backdrop for AUD/INR and helps contain macro volatility, even as technical signals show mixed momentum near key levels. With the currency pair trading in a sideways band, the expert expects two-way risks but leans constructive as longer-term support holds. "I think the RBI’s decisive moves are laying a solid foundation for AUD/INR to build on its recent gains if macro headwinds further subside."

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent technical weakness and central bank interventions were reinforcing a bearish outlook for AUD/INR. The current stabilization above short- and medium-term moving averages, alongside RBI’s recent regulatory actions, adds a new dimension of volatility management, making the pair’s ability to sustain gains above the 200-day moving average a key focus for traders in the days ahead.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.