Australian dollar to Canadian dollar exchange rate outlook: Sideways trading expected as sellers dominate

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Australian Dollar falls 0.51% to C$0.9827

Highlights

The Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor warned that Australia faces a materially worse inflation outlook, focusing market attention on policy action.
The Canadian dollar traded steadily against the U.S. dollar as traders awaited the Bank of Canada policy meeting outcome.
AUD/CAD remains under persistent downside pressure with momentum and trend indicators signaling a high probability of a move to C$0.9778.

Hawkish RBA outlook and policy anticipation drive currency sensitivity

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser stated that the country's inflation outlook appeared materially worse, drawing market attention to the prospect of a potential policy response, according to CNBC. This official assessment heightened sensitivity to monetary policy expectations and set the stage for comparative moves between the Australian and Canadian dollars. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar remained steady against the U.S. dollar as traders awaited the outcome of the upcoming Bank of Canada policy meeting, also reported by CNBC.

Persistent bearish momentum as major indicators favor sellers

On the technical front, AUD/CAD is currently trading below its MA-20 and MA-50 on the primary working timeframe, as well as below the MA-200 on the daily trend. The Ichimoku Kijun level at C$0.9852 acts as immediate resistance and may cap any rebound attempts. Momentum indicators are unanimously weak: MACD signals a strong sell, while ADX favors sellers. RSI and Stochastic RSI both exhibit a sell bias, and CCI is in oversold territory. Bull/Bear Power reflects persistent seller dominance intraday, and the Awesome Oscillator supports the prevailing downtrend. Price action is holding near the session range low at C$0.9827 on low volatility, consistent with the intraday momentum signals.

Downside bias dominates as rebound chances diminish in range

Looking ahead, AUD/CAD is expected to fluctuate in a C$0.9778 to C$0.9876 band over the next two to three trading days, representing a typical volatility window relative to current levels. The probability of an upward move is very low, with downside continuation significantly more likely and any sharp reversal less probable. The baseline scenario envisions further sideways trading within this corridor. A break above the C$0.9852 resistance would indicate a short-term rebound, while a dip below C$0.9778 would strengthen the ongoing downward trend.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, notes that recent comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia have heightened monetary policy sensitivity in AUD markets. He observes that the Canadian dollar’s relative stability ahead of the Bank of Canada meeting has tipped AUD/CAD into a clear downside bias. Macro fundamentals and market sentiment both support continued pressure on the pair. "Unless AUD/CAD breaks above C$0.9852, I expect sideways-to-lower action with sellers in control over the near term."

Earlier, analysts noted that AUD/CAD was under persistent technical pressure, with downside risks dominating the outlook. The latest analysis confirms this bearish tone and highlights that traders should monitor the C$0.9778 support level closely, as a sustained break below could trigger renewed selling momentum.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.