What's driving US Dollar vs Israeli Shekel lower today?

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Us dollar/shekel slides 0.92% today

Highlights

The US Dollar strengthened to 3.112 Shekels after the Bank of Israel maintained its policy rate at 3.25%.
The Shekel lost 0.7% for the week ending October 23, 2026, with central bank forecasts citing increased inflation pressure.
USD/ILS trades below short- and medium-term averages with technicals signaling near-term seller pressure and a forecast range of ₪3.0285 to ₪3.0771 over five days.

Shekel depreciation accelerates on steady central bank policy

Recent financial reports confirmed that the US Dollar appreciated against the Israeli Shekel as the Bank of Israel set the representative rate at 3.112. The Shekel weakened about 0.7% for the week ending October 23, 2026, after the central bank decided to hold its policy rate steady at 3.25%. This depreciation has contributed to increased inflationary pressure according to the central bank's latest forecasts. Compared to its level near 2.80 per USD in June, the Shekel remains significantly weaker.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, highlights ongoing weakness in the Shekel and a challenging technical setup for USD/ILS. He observes selling pressure dominating short and medium-term trends, with the pair trading below key moving averages. Despite bullish momentum from MACD, mixed indicators and the Bank of Israel’s stagnant rate expose downside risks. Persistent central bank inaction exacerbates inflationary concerns, weighing on market sentiment. "I do not see ground for optimism here until more decisive policy support emerges or technicals stabilize above key levels."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees opportunity in the USD/ILS pair amid recent volatility. He believes the fundamental backdrop remains constructive, supported by central bank policy and persistent USD strength. The macro trend still favors the Dollar, and he notes that bullish structure remains intact above the long-term moving average. "A breakout above ₪3.0533 would confirm further growth prospects — this market offers multiple setups for bullish traders."

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, questions the momentum behind USD/ILS after the recent drop. He notes that oversold signals and entrenched volatility reflect fragile market sentiment. With mixed technicals and macro headwinds, Dele urges caution. "Without a strong catalyst, I expect further choppiness and caution against chasing moves in either direction."

Mixed momentum signals as price tests support near session lows

USD/ILS is currently trading below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages at ₪3.0823 and ₪3.0533, while remaining above the 200-day moving average at ₪3.0136. This signals short- and medium-term pressure from sellers, with longer-term structure confirming a bullish tilt; the near-term ceiling stands at ₪3.0533 and the floor at ₪3.0285, with the Ichimoku Kijun at ₪3.0589 acting as resistance. Momentum readings are mixed: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) gives a Strong Buy signal, whereas the Average Directional Index (ADX) shows a neutral trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in a neutral zone forecasting Buy, but Stochastic RSI signals the pair is oversold. Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is neutral, and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) value above zero indicates buyers dominate intraday momentum, with oversold conditions flagged by the oscillators. The pair last traded at ₪3.0528, down ₪0.0284 or 0.92% on the day after opening nearly flat. It trades near the session low as intraday volatility stands at 0.89%, reflecting weakness after the open. The momentum indicators diverge: oscillators signal possible reversal from oversold levels, yet price action and HMA continue to point to near-term pressure.

Earlier, analysts noted that the US Dollar vs Israeli Shekel faced persistent downside risk as it traded below key short- and medium-term moving averages amid steady monetary policy. Current developments reinforce this outlook, with technical signals and recent volatility suggesting traders should closely watch for a potential break below ₪3.0285 as the key level for further downside risk in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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