US Dollar vs South Korean Won gains more than 1% after strong SK Hynix results and stock market rally

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Us dollar/south korean won rises 1.1% today

Highlights

The South Korean won weakened and bond yields rose as increased corporate activity and a sharp KOSPI rally drove domestic market volatility.
SK Hynix reported strong quarterly results and announced major shareholder return initiatives, contributing to the market surge.
USD/KRW trades above short-term support at ₩1,334 but under medium- and long-term bearish pressure, with expected five-day range of ₩1,334 to ₩1,347 and a 76% probability of a downward move.

Won under pressure as equity gains and bond yields fuel volatility

The South Korean won weakened as South Korea’s KOSPI index rallied sharply after SK Hynix reported strong quarterly results and announced major shareholder return initiatives. Increased corporate activity and the stock market surge contributed to volatility in domestic markets, influencing both equities and the won’s exchange rate. Bond prices fell, with the three-year Korean government bond yield rising by 4.1 basis points.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, views the recent USD/KRW uptick as a limited technical rebound amid persistent weakness. He sees that increased KOSPI volatility and aggressive shareholder moves at SK Hynix have only momentarily supported the won, leaving underlying risks unresolved. The analyst argues that the price sits above the MA-20, but the failure to reclaim MA-50 and MA-200 keeps the pair within a broad bearish framework. Momentum indicators continue to signal more downside, with short-lived buying not enough to shift sentiment. "Until USD/KRW breaks above ₩1,342 and the technical context improves, I remain cautious — another leg lower remains the base case."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees opportunity amid the recent volatility in USD/KRW. He points out that robust SK Hynix results and broader corporate momentum have injected fresh confidence into Korean markets. The analyst believes that ongoing shareholder returns and policy support will foster renewed inflows, cushioning the won. “With the volatility band holding and positive corporate signals, I believe the market offers bullish setups targeting stabilization and potential recovery toward ₩1,347.”

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, notes that USD/KRW is trading in a tight range, with technical signals giving mixed cues. He highlights price rejection at resistance and a downward bias, but points to oversold momentum as a tactical contrarian signal. “A reversal above ₩1,342 would attract breakout traders, but I’m watching for tactical shorts as long as the pair stays capped below major averages.”

Bearish momentum holds as resistance levels and technical signals align

USD/KRW is holding above the MA-20 (₩1,333) but stays under the MA-50 (₩1,348) and MA-200 (₩1,449), reflecting short-term resilience yet maintaining a broader bearish outlook. Near-term resistance is at ₩1,342, while support sits at ₩1,334. The longer-term trend remains pressured by a bearish alignment of the MA-50 versus MA-200 and resistance from the Ichimoku Kijun at ₩1,343. Technical momentum is mixed: MACD and ADX suggest underlying bearishness, the RSI at 38.23 signals a sell and edges toward oversold, while CCI, Stochastic RSI, and BBP at -0.69 confirm seller dominance. Price action shows gains near session highs after a flat open, as buyers stepped in despite persistent bearish signals.

Earlier, analysts noted that renewed US dollar momentum and Federal Reserve policy expectations were key drivers of near-term direction for USD/KRW. The latest market developments add a domestic volatility dimension, and with technical momentum remaining mixed, traders should closely monitor the ₩1,334 support and ₩1,342 resistance levels as potential inflection points in the coming days.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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