RBA decision leaves AUD/JPY near resistance as mixed technicals temper gains

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Australian Dollar vs Yen gains 0.53% today

Highlights

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%, reaching the highest level in 18 years.
This rate hike was the fifth in 2023 and passed after a split board vote, revealing internal disagreements on policy tightening.
AUD/JPY continues short- and medium-term bullish momentum, with price forecast to fluctuate between ¥110.58 and ¥111.7, although overbought technicals warn of possible short-term correction.

Yield advantage rises as RBA hike faces board division

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a 25 basis point increase to its official cash rate in its November meeting, bringing the benchmark to 4.85% and marking its highest level in 18 years, according to Ambito. This was the fifth policy rate hike this year and followed a split board vote, highlighting internal debate over the pace of tightening. Elevated rates boost the yield advantage of the Australian Dollar against the Yen, yet the divided decision injects some hesitation into forward-looking interest rate expectations.

Overbought signals emerge as MA-200 limits upside push

On the technical front, AUD/JPY has established itself above its MA-20 and MA-50 on the hourly chart, but continues to face resistance from the MA-200 overhead. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at ¥110.25, serving as a key support level in the immediate term. Momentum indicators show a mixed setup: MACD is neutral, ADX provides a buy signal, while the RSI is neutral. Both Stoch RSI and CCI are in overbought territory, indicating a risk of short-term pullback rather than a sustained reversal. Bull/Bear Power reads positively at 0.47, and the Awesome Oscillator supports intraday buying strength.

Bullish bias dominates as volatility band contains downside risk

Looking to the near term, AUD/JPY is expected to consolidate within a typical volatility band ranging from ¥110.58 to ¥111.7. The probability for an upward move within this corridor is very high given current conditions, while the risk of a sustained decline remains low. A bullish breakout would be confirmed on a move above ¥111.7, whereas any drop below ¥110.58 would shift focus to the next potential area of support.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the recent RBA rate hike as a clear catalyst for renewed interest in AUD/JPY, especially given the elevated yield environment. He notes that medium-term momentum stays favorable above key averages, though the split RBA vote tempers enthusiasm. The current range offers tactical buying opportunities, as positive signals outweigh short-term pullback risks. "With fundamentals and sentiment both supportive, I believe AUD/JPY remains well-positioned to retest ¥111.7 in the coming days."

Previously it was reported that the Australian Dollar versus Yen remained under persistent bearish pressure, with downside risks dominating the technical outlook. The latest analysis adds a new dimension by highlighting an improvement in short-term momentum above key averages, suggesting traders should monitor ¥111.7 for potential bullish breakout confirmation.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.