Philippines warns Super El Niño may worsen poverty risk

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Philippines Super El Niño poverty risk

Highlights

Super El Niño may persist through mid-2027, potentially worsening Philippine poverty rates by threatening agriculture, fishery, and forestry livelihoods.
Over 451,889 people, including 215,000 farmers and fisherfolk, have already suffered from extreme heat, while agricultural losses reached P6.5 million.
The national poverty rate declined to 9.7% in 2025 from 15.5% in 2023, but increased poverty thresholds and weather shocks could undermine these gains.

Agriculture and livelihoods face rising threat

As reported by BusinessWorld Online, the Philippine Business for Social Progress said on Friday that a looming “Super El Niño” could worsen the country’s poverty rate as extreme heat and reduced rainfall raise risks for farmers and fishermen.

PBSP Executive Director Elvin Ivan Y. Uy said the agriculture, fishery and forestry sector stands to be hit hardest, warning that lower precipitation, elevated heat indices and weaker land productivity are creating severe financial pressure for smallholder producers. He also urged the government to expand protections for vulnerable communities, saying existing programs are already inadequate even before the possible intensification of El Niño.

PAGASA earlier said El Niño could strengthen into a “very strong” weather phenomenon until December and persist through the first half of 2027. Separately, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council said on Tuesday that extreme heat has affected more than 451,889 people nationwide, including more than 215,000 farmers and fisherfolk, while agricultural losses and damage have reached P6.5 million.

Poverty gains could come under pressure

Uy said the proposed P7.2-trillion national budget for fiscal year 2027, up 6% from the P6.79-trillion budget in 2026, gives the government more room to strengthen support for marginalized groups if funds are used effectively.

The warning comes days after the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development reported preliminary estimates showing the poverty rate fell to 9.7% in 2025 from 15.5% in 2023. Those estimates used a national poverty threshold of P14,634 a month for a family of five, higher than the P13,873 threshold in 2023, underscoring how weather-driven shocks to food production and rural incomes could test the durability of that improvement.

In our earlier article on Philippine coffee production falling below 30,000 metric tons in 2026, we examined how rising temperatures and looming Super El Niño conditions are expected to squeeze coffee-growing areas and reverse recent output gains. We also noted the country’s heavy import dependence and the push for more climate-resilient coffee varieties as producers try to adapt to worsening weather stress.

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