Canada's wholesale sector shows modest growth in September, with advance data pointing to a monthly sales increase excluding petroleum and grain-related categories. The gain is driven mainly by stronger activity in machinery, equipment and supplies, as well as motor vehicles and parts.
Highlights
- Statistics Canada's advance estimate shows September wholesale sales rose 0.5% month-over-month, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, oilseed, and grain.
- Higher sales in the machinery, equipment and supplies subsector and the motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories subsector primarily drove the increase.
- The advance wholesale sales estimate is based on a 62.2% response rate and is more likely to be revised than the regular release, which averages 83.7%.
Advance estimate points to broad wholesale gains
As reported by Statistics Canada, the advance indicator for September shows wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rising 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis in current dollars.The agency says the increase mainly reflects higher sales in the machinery, equipment and supplies subsector and the motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories subsector.
This preliminary estimate is based on a weighted response rate of 62.2%. Statistics Canada notes that, as data collection for the September reference month continues, the advance reading is more likely to be revised than the regular monthly release.
Data limits shape sector analysis
The average final response rate to the wholesale trade survey over the previous 12 months is 83.7%, highlighting the gap between the early estimate and the final data typically used for monthly analysis.Statistics Canada says petroleum, petroleum products and other hydrocarbons, along with oilseed and grain data, remain available in data tables but continue to be excluded from monthly analysis until historical data are available for proper monthly and annual comparisons.
In our earlier article on conflict-driven spikes in crude oil shipping costs, we explained how surging tanker and insurance rates have become a much larger component of oil pricing as routes are disrupted and vessels are rerouted. We also noted that these higher transport costs can cascade from fuel markets into wider consumer prices and imported-goods costs, especially for import-dependent economies.
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