Russia manufacturing nears stabilization in October as PMI edges up
Russia's factory sector is close to stabilization in October, with a closely watched survey showing contraction nearly halts. The PMI rises to 49.9 from 49.8 in September, as declines in output, new orders and employment all ease.
Highlights
- Russia's Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.9 in October from 49.8 in September, signaling near-stabilization but remaining in contraction territory.
- Production and new orders declined for a third month, with new export orders seeing their sharpest drop since May 2022, especially from CIS partners like Kazakhstan.
- Input and output price inflation slowed to seven- and six-month lows respectively, while business confidence improved to its highest since June despite weak purchasing activity.
October PMI signals softer contraction
As reported by Reuters, citing S&P Global, Russia's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index ticks up to 49.9 in October from 49.8 in September, just below the 50 threshold that separates growth from contraction.Production declines for a third consecutive month, but only marginally, while new orders also fall for a third month at the weakest pace in that stretch. New export orders continue to contract for a 12th straight month, with respondents linking the sharpest drop since May 2022 to fewer orders from other Commonwealth of Independent States countries, particularly Kazakhstan.
Employment also falls again as companies cite layoffs and voluntary resignations, although the rate of decline is the slowest so far this year. Backlogs of work shrink for a 21st month, but that decrease is also the mildest since February.
Cost pressures ease but sentiment improves
Input prices continue to rise sharply in October, though the pace is the slowest in seven months. Output price inflation also softens to its weakest level since April as manufacturers face competitive pressure.Purchasing activity drops at the fastest pace since March as firms rely on existing inventories instead of adding to stocks. Even so, business confidence improves to its highest level since June, supported by expectations of a more stable market environment and new customer wins, although overall sentiment remains historically weak.
In our earlier report on S&P Global Ratings’ warning about sovereign resilience, we noted that persistent geopolitical shocks alongside elevated fiscal spending are increasing borrowing and refinancing risks in a higher-rate environment. The analysis highlighted that emerging and frontier markets are especially exposed due to heavier interest-service burdens and narrower revenue bases, while energy and food price pressures add to inflation and strain public finances.