S&P Global sees U.S. payroll growth firming, Canada jobs rebound remains fragile
North American labor market data due this week is expected to show modest improvement in hiring conditions on both sides of the border. S&P Global Ratings says U.S. nonfarm payrolls likely rise by 60,000 in October, while Canadian employment is projected to recover by 15,000 after two months of losses.
Highlights
- S&P Global Ratings projects U.S. nonfarm payrolls to increase by 60,000 in October, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%.
- Canada is expected to add 15,000 jobs in October after losing 110,000 jobs in August and September, with unemployment remaining at 6.5%.
- S&P Global notes both labor markets are stabilizing, but Canada's jobs rebound is more fragile than the U.S., prompting close investor scrutiny.
October labor data outlook
According to S&P Global Ratings, U.S. nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 60,000 in October, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. In Canada, the ratings firm expects employment to rebound by 15,000 after a combined loss of 110,000 jobs in August and September, while the unemployment rate likely remains at 6.5%.The U.S. forecast follows a weaker-than-expected gain of 29,000 jobs in September. S&P Global says its October payroll estimate is about double its estimated break-even pace of roughly 30,000 jobs a month, a level it views as sufficient to absorb new entrants to the labor force.
Stabilization signals and regional implications
The outlook suggests both labor markets are stabilizing, but the recovery path is uneven. While the U.S. jobs picture appears to be improving from September's soft reading, Canada shows a more tentative rebound after recent employment losses.That leaves investors and policymakers watching the upcoming releases for confirmation that labor demand is not weakening more sharply. For Canada in particular, the projected gain points to some recovery, but S&P Global Ratings indicates the labor market remains more fragile than in the U.S.
Our earlier article on early-career job-hopping explained how frequent job changes can be a key driver of wage growth and better long-term job matches in the U.S. Drawing on established economic research, it highlighted that avoiding mobility early on can limit earnings gains, even as cultural attitudes often stigmatize short tenures.
Latest Labor Market News
-
Afghanistan
-
Albania
-
Algeria
-
Angola
-
Argentina
-
Armenia
-
Australia
-
Austria
-
Azerbaijan
-
Bahamas
-
Bahrain
-
Bangladesh
-
Belarus
-
Belgium
-
Bolivia
-
Botswana
-
Brazil
-
Brunei
-
Bulgaria
-
Cambodia
-
Cameroon
-
Canada
-
Chile
-
China
-
Colombia
-
Congo
-
Costa Rica
-
Cote d'Ivoire
-
Croatia
-
Cuba
-
Cyprus
-
Czechia
-
DR Congo
-
Denmark
-
Dominican Republic
-
Ecuador
-
Egypt
-
El Salvador
-
Estonia
-
Eswatini
-
Ethiopia
-
Finland
-
France
-
Georgia
-
Germany
-
Ghana
-
Greece
-
Haiti
-
Hong Kong
-
Hungary
-
India
-
Indonesia
-
Iran, Islamic republic
-
Iraq
-
Ireland
-
Israel
-
Italy
-
Jamaica
-
Japan
-
Jordan
-
Kazakhstan
-
Kenya
-
Korea
-
Kuwait
-
Kyrgyzstan
-
Laos
-
Latvia
-
Lebanon
-
Lesotho
-
Libya
-
Lithuania
-
Luxembourg
-
Madagascar
-
Malaysia
-
Malta
-
Mauritius
-
Mexico
-
Moldova
-
Mongolia
-
Montenegro
-
Morocco
-
Mozambique
-
Myanmar
-
Namibia
-
Nepal
-
Netherlands
-
New Zealand
-
Nigeria
-
North Macedonia
-
Norway
-
Oman
-
Pakistan
-
Palestine
-
Panama
-
Papua New Guinea
-
Paraguay
-
Peru
-
Philippines
-
Poland
-
Portugal
-
Puerto Rico
-
Qatar
-
Reunion
-
Romania
-
Rwanda
-
Saudi Arabia
-
Serbia
-
Singapore
-
Slovakia
-
Slovenia
-
Somalia
-
South Africa
-
Spain
-
Sri Lanka
-
Sweden
-
Switzerland
-
Syria
-
Taiwan
-
Tajikistan
-
Tanzania
-
Thailand
-
Trinidad and Tobago
-
Tunisia
-
Turkey
-
UAE
-
Uganda
-
Ukraine
-
United Kingdom
-
United States
-
Uruguay
-
Uzbekistan
-
Venezuela
-
Vietnam
-
Yemen
-
Zambia
-
Zimbabwe
- Forex
- Crypto
