U.S. labor demand strengthens at the end of September even as overall job growth remains subdued. The increase in vacancies and the drop in layoffs support views that the labor market stays relatively firm in a low-hire, low-fire environment.
Highlights
- September JOLTS data show job openings rising by 333,000 to 7.523 million, surpassing Reuters forecast of 7.100 million.
- The job openings rate increases to 4.5% from 4.3% in August, with layoffs and discharges falling by 127,000 to 1.641 million.
- Nonfarm payrolls add 29,000 jobs in September and economists expect a 65,000 gain in October with unemployment steady at 4.2%.
September JOLTS data shows firmer labor demand
As reported by Reuters, citing the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, job openings increased by 333,000 to 7.523 million on the last day of September in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS. August data is revised slightly higher to 7.190 million vacancies from the previously reported 7.079 million.Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 7.100 million unfilled positions for September. The job openings rate rises to 4.5% from 4.3% in August, though the JOLTS report continues to face a low response rate that has fallen considerably from before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Hiring increases by 131,000 to 5.402 million in September, lifting the hires rate to 3.4% from 3.3% in August. Layoffs and discharges decrease by 127,000 to 1.641 million, with the rate falling to 1.0% from 1.1% in August.
Labor market outlook ahead of October payrolls
Economists continue to characterize the labor market as being in a low-hire, low-fire state, arguing that strong profits and resilient domestic demand keep layoffs near historic lows. At the same time, the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is making employers hesitant to increase hiring.Nonfarm payrolls increase by 29,000 jobs in September. A Reuters survey of economists expects payrolls to have advanced by 65,000 in October, while the unemployment rate is forecast to have been unchanged at 4.2%.
In our earlier article on early-career job-hopping and wage growth, we reviewed research showing that switching jobs in the first years of a career can account for a large share of workers’ lifetime pay gains and help them find better long-term matches. The piece also noted that avoiding moves early on can limit earnings progression, highlighting a gap between cultural skepticism toward short tenures and evidence that mobility can strengthen career outcomes.
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