Mexico analysts lift inflation and growth forecasts in central bank survey

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Anton Kharitonov

03.11.2026

Mexico analysts lift inflation and growth forecasts in central bank survey — Mexico forecasts rise

Mexico's private sector analysts slightly raised their forecasts for inflation and economic growth for 2026 and 2027 in the latest central bank survey. The median estimates also indicate expectations that the benchmark interest rate stays unchanged at 6.50% through the end of 2027.

Highlights

Private sector analysts raised Mexico's 2026 headline inflation forecast to 3.88% and 2027 forecast to 3.85%, both slightly higher than last month's survey.
Mexico's 2026 GDP growth estimate increased to 1.50% and 2027 estimate to 1.83%, reflecting a modest improvement in economic outlook.
Analysts expect the central bank's benchmark interest rate to remain unchanged at 6.50% through the end of 2027, according to the October survey of 40 economists.

Updated survey forecasts for prices and output

As reported by Reuters, citing Mexico's central bank, private sector analysts now expect headline inflation to reach 3.88% in 2026, up from 3.87% in the previous month's survey. For 2027, the median forecast rises to 3.85% from 3.82%.

The same survey shows Mexico's gross domestic product is expected to grow 1.50% in 2026, compared with an earlier estimate of 1.40%. For 2027, analysts now see growth at 1.83%, slightly above the prior 1.80% forecast.

Rate outlook and survey scope

Analysts do not expect any further changes to the central bank's benchmark interest rate, which currently stands at 6.50%, through the end of 2027.

The survey covers 40 analysts and was conducted between Oct. 19 and Oct. 29, with the published figures shown as medians.

Our earlier article on UBS Global Wealth Management’s extended Fed tightening-cycle forecast explained why the bank expects additional U.S. rate hikes into early 2027 amid persistent inflation pressures. We noted that firmer goods and services inflation and a range of upside risks to prices were keeping expectations tilted toward higher-for-longer policy settings and elevated borrowing costs.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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