Philippine inflation accelerates to 7.8% as energy costs lift transport and utility prices

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Philippine inflation hits 7.8%

Highlights

Philippine October inflation accelerated to 7.8% from 7.2% in September, exceeding the 7.6% analyst estimate and reaching a four-year high.
Energy price increases and a weak peso drove up transport, housing and utilities, and imported goods costs, with core inflation rising to 5.4%.
Inflation hit 5.9% in the National Capital Region and 9.5% for the bottom 30% of income households, highlighting intensified regional and household pressure.

October price pressures broaden across key sectors

As reported by BusinessWorld, citing the Philippine Statistics Authority, the consumer price index climbs 7.8% in October from 7.2% in September and 1.7% a year earlier, marking the fastest inflation reading in nearly four years since February 2023's 8.6%. The latest figure also exceeds the 7.6% median estimate from 22 analysts in a BusinessWorld poll, while remaining within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' 7.1% to 8.1% forecast range.

National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa says October inflation heats up because of faster price increases in transport, housing and utilities, and restaurants and accommodation services. The PSA also says import-driven inflation strengthens last month as the weak peso against the U.S. dollar raises the cost of imported goods.

Mapa says the exchange-rate pass-through is most visible in energy items such as diesel, gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas, as well as imported rice. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also picks up to 5.4% in October from the revised 4.8% in September and 2.5% a year earlier, the fastest core reading since September 2023's 5.9%.

Regional and household impact intensifies

Inflation in the National Capital Region quickens to 5.9% from the revised 5.3% in September and 2.9% a year earlier. Outside the NCR, inflation accelerates to 8.2% from 7.6% in the previous month and 1.3% in October 2025.

Lower-income households continue to face steeper price pressure than the national average. Inflation for the bottom 30% of income households rises to 9.5% from 9% in September and minus 0.4% a year earlier, pushing their average inflation to 6.8% as of October.

Our earlier article on the Philippine stock market rebound and the peso’s record low described how bargain hunting lifted the PSEi even as the currency slid to around P63 per U.S. dollar. We noted that despite improved foreign flows and broad-based sector gains, sentiment stayed cautious because a weaker peso can feed into higher import costs and tighter financial conditions.

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