U.S. wholesale inventories revised higher as September stock buildup supports growth

U.S. wholesale inventories revised higher as September stock buildup supports growth
Wholesale stocks boost growth

A stronger-than-estimated buildup in wholesale stockpiles in September points to continued support for U.S. economic growth in the third quarter. The increase is driven in part by sharp gains in electrical goods, hardware and petroleum inventories, sectors tied to heavy business spending and supply needs.

Highlights

  • U.S. wholesale inventories rose 0.7% in September, revised from 0.6%, with inventories up 7.6% year-over-year according to the Commerce Department.
  • Sales at wholesalers jumped 2.8% in September, dropping the inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.21 months from 1.23 months in August.
  • Inventory investment contributed 1.61 percentage points to Q3's 3.4% annualized U.S. GDP growth, signaling inventory buildup remains a key output driver.

September inventory gains and sales momentum

As reported by Reuters, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau says wholesale inventories rise 0.7% in September, revised up from the previously reported 0.6% increase. That follows a 0.6% gain in August, while inventories are up 7.6% from a year earlier.

Durable goods inventories increase 0.6% in the month, led by a 2.5% jump in electrical goods and a 1.3% rebound in hardware stocks. Petroleum inventories also surge 10.6% in September.

Sales at wholesalers jump 2.8% in September after rising 2.0% in August. At the September sales pace, it would take 1.21 months to clear shelves, down from 1.23 months in August.

Implications for U.S. growth and business spending

Businesses are aggressively spending on artificial intelligence, which remains one of the key drivers of economic growth. The gains in electrical goods and hardware inventories likely reflect that buildout and broader demand for equipment.

Inventory investment rebounds in the third quarter after contracting for five straight quarters. Inventories contribute 1.61 percentage points to the economy's 3.4% annualized growth rate in the July-to-September quarter.

The inventories-to-sales ratio stands at 1.34 months in September 2025. The latest data suggest stock accumulation continues to provide a meaningful cushion for output even as wholesalers move more goods.

Our earlier article on the KPMG U.S. CEO survey showed that many large companies are already seeing efficiency and growth gains from AI agents, even if only a small share view them as truly transformational so far. It also noted that executives expect AI to drive continued hiring, retraining, and sizeable capital spending on AI infrastructure over the next several years.

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